So, hier nun gleich Nummer zwei zur Leistungsbilanz bzw. zum Defizit derselben...

<font size="4">Would You Keep Investing In An Enterprise That Was Just Throwing Parties With Your Funds?</font>

July 09, 2002

In the 1990s, the US was the recipient of a huge amount of the rest of the world's savings. As
shown in the chart below, the US current account, a proxy for capital inflows, went from a surplus of
almost 1% of GDP in early 1991 to a deficit of over 4% of GDP at the end of 2000. And what were
we doing with the savings of the rest of the world? The other line in the chart shows that we were
spending a good portion of the resources on loan to us on nonresidential fixed investment -- i.e.,
computers, servers, routers, drill presses, office buildings, and warehouses. Presumably, by
investing the savings of the rest of the world, we would become more productive. If so, we would
then be able to pay the interest and dividends owed to foreign investors and have enough output
left over to still provide us with a rising standard of living. This is why global investors were so
willing to place funds with us - because we appeared to be employing those funds in way which
increased the probability that they could be paid back without undue hardship on Americans.
Global investors didn't care about the hardship on Americans, per se. Rather they felt that if debt
and equity servicing required hardship on Americans, we would try to repay global investors with
"cheaper" US dollars.

The US current account as a percent of GDP peaked out at 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2000. But
starting in the fourth quarter of 2001, the current account deficit relative to GDP started moving up
again. It had risen back to 4.3% by the first quarter of this year. So, global investors have
stepped up again their placement of funds with us. But what are we using the savings of others for
now? A form of partying, I would argue. Now, we are using the resources of the rest of the world to
erect houses here, buy Lincoln Navigators, and build cruise missiles. Nonresidential fixed
investment as a percent of GDP peaked out at 13.2% back in the second quarter of 2000. By the
first quarter of this year, this percentage had slipped to 11.1%. So, we are borrowing more
resources from the rest of the world, but not employing these resources in ways that are likely to
boost our productivity in the coming years. Do you think that global investors will want to keep
throwing good money after bad? Judging by our weak stock market and weak dollar, the answer is
"no."

Chart 1

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Paul Kasriel

Quelle


Gruss
Cosa


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