>>>Das heißt nicht, das
eine normale Bewertung sofort erreicht werden muß. Dies könnte auch durch eine 2 jährige Baisse geschehen, also bis 2002.<<<

Hat es so etwas in der Geschichte schon einmal gegeben? So ein langsames Abrutschen? Oder war es nicht meistens ein jäher Fall und dann ein Dahindümpeln auf einen niedrigeren Niveau? Hat jemand Zahlen darüber fragt Oldy


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Hallo zusammen,

folgendes ist ein Auszug aus dem gestrigen"Credit Bubble Bulletin" von Doug Noland:

"... Today there was further news of difficulties within the leveraged speculating community. This time it was the Soros group and Conseco. We view both as very important players. Conseco, in particular, ended the year with $52 billion in assets and more than $40 billion of balance sheet liabilities. Conseco has also been a major player in mortgages and mortgage-related securities. They also have off-balance sheet derivative positions, and are a major player in the securitization marketplace. As we have written previously, it is our view that the historic US credit bubble has been pierced. Now, the “dominos” are beginning to fall and the list of casualties is destined to lengthen. The key point to recognize presently is that when the speculating community suffers significant losses, the dynamics for the credit system tend to deteriorate rapidly, as it does for the financial markets generally. The fact is that highly leveraged financial systems with endemic speculation are acutely unstable. As leveraged players become impaired, they are no longer in a position to continue to acquire the securities created by Wall Street. Moreover, as losses mount these players are forced to retrench and liquidate positions. As this liquidation only works to weaken prices of these financial assets - the collateral for the leveraged speculating community - there exists today very significant potential for “debt deflation” type dynamics. Liquidation by the leveraged players begets credit contraction and financial asset deflation. The likelihood of this process developing into a very serious financial crisis is now rising by the week. At the minimum, the consequence is faltering financial market liquidity and an acutely vulnerable stock market and credit system. The fact that a dangerous real estate bubble runs simultaneously makes this both an extraordinary period and one unfortunately quite vulnerable to a financial accident."

Soweit so gut. Was mir nicht ganz klar ist, wie funktioniert eigentlich das"leverage" oder konkreter, wie wird damit Profit generiert?

Schon mal vielen Dank für die Antworten,

NickLeeson

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