-->Natürlich läuft es nicht als Entlassung, aber die Differenzen wurden wohl doch zu groß. Während Richard Davidson weiter von einem Aufschwung ausgeht, glaubt Roach an einen Rückfall in die Rezession. Streitpunkt war wohl, inwieweit es in Vergangenheit double dip Scenarios gab. Roach meinte fast immer, die anderen meinten, dass so etwas äusserst selten sei...

We all need one — time out to decompress. To reconnect with family, friends, and look at the world and the markets from a different perspective. I will attempt to do all that and more over the next couple of weeks. This space will be silent until 3 September.

I must confess that it’s particularly difficult to disengage in the summer of 2002. The debate has been more intense than I can remember in a long time. Yet I must also confess that the tedium of bearishness has started to get to me as well. Who wouldn’t want to get up in the morning and see the glass as more than half full? Yet I’ve long been taught to stay with your discipline. After all, what else do we really have? At this point in time, the lens of my post-bubble analytics continues to see rough times ahead for the US economy — a greater risk of multiple dips than a mere double, and a higher probability of deflation than inflation. Needless to say, for a US-centric global economy, those are not encouraging words. Lacking a growth engine, America’s dip could easily be the world’s dip.

See what you’ll be missing! Maybe a self-imposed exile will provide me with a different vantage point, a new insight, or a fresh revelation. Maybe it won’t. In any case, the long overdue summer break is at hand. See you after Labor Day.