-->Interessante Zeiten. Nach fast drei Jahren Bärenmarkt werden nun einige namenhafte Anleger anfangen ins Lager der Bullen zu wechseln. Dies wird zu weiteren Verwerfungen und schlussendlich vermutlich noch in diesem Jahr zu den besten Ausstiegsmöglichkeiten führen. Bis jetzt lief es alles noch sehr ruhig ab. Aber 2003/04 wird wohl sehr dramatisch ablaufen, wenn die Leute die den Crash voraus gesehen haben nach dem Einstieg Geld verlieren. Dann wollen alle auf einmal durch die Tür und die Versicherungen können bilanziel nicht noch ein Verlustjahr verkraften.

Alle Versicherungen und Banken werden nun alles daran setzen, dass die LOWS im Oktober nicht mehr unterboten werden. Bis Ende des Jahres und evtl. Anfang nächstes werden sie über diverse Kapitalerhöhungen und Erträge aus dem Anleihenmarkt sowie noch tieferen Zinsen die Möglichkeit haben Liquidität in die Märte zu pumpen. Einige Hedgefonds die Short waren versuchen das Spiel mittlerweile auf der LONG Seite. Es wird sehr aufregend sein zu sehen, wie sie scheitern werden.

Anbei Ein Artikel eines solchen gewandelten Bären (und es werden in dieser Rallye wie jedes Jahr eine Menge folgen). Das erinnert an die Jungfrau Lorelei, die mit ihrem Gesang die Fischer verrückt machte:-) also Ohren zu halten und durch:


By Thomas Kurlak
Special to RealMoney.com
10/31/2002 01:16 PM EST
Click here for more stories by Thomas Kurlak


It's not too early to get ready for the next up cycle. I'm now starting to build positions -- specifically, in semiconductor and cell-phone stocks. Remember that this down cycle in tech started in cell phones, then went to personal computers and lastly affected telecom equipment. For the past few months, I've been seeing a pickup in cell-phone sales, which Nokia (NOK:NYSE ADR - news - commentary - research - analysis) recently confirmed.

Soon, I expect we'll be hearing about better PC sales. They usually pick up at year-end, and despite weak consumer sentiment, I expect the same thing to happen this year because of the length of this slowdown and better product pricing. Perhaps as more capacity is burned off, we may even hear of improving telecom sales by late 2003.

With tech now broadly shunned by investors and most observers and analysts positioned for more bad news, now is probably a good time to begin leaning into the negative consensus. And the best way to do that is with semiconductor stocks: They supply parts to all tech sectors, so they can't miss a recovery, no matter where it starts.


Leading the Way
For my money, Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) will lead again in this cycle because of its superior management and balance sheet and its still-high profitability. (It's had a 10% net margin in a recession.)

Despite the poor reception that Intel's third-quarter earnings initially received from the Street, I was encouraged by its very good inventory control. In fact, I was aware of inventory buildup over the summer, which was worked off by quarter-end. This caused the gross margin to decline below 50%, as wafer starts were cut back and the factories ran at lower output levels. But Intel shows good cost control and is poised for strong gross-margin improvement on higher sales. Plus, a PC replacement cycle is overdue.


Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) is completing its fiscal fourth quarter this week, and results will be depressed as expected. More layoffs are likely soon, too.

But Applied Materials lags the cycle, as does any capital-goods company. As the No. 1 semiconductor capital-equipment supplier in the world, Applied Materials just can't miss a new semi cycle. I think problems at the big foundry customers in Taiwan are overplayed as a negative: It appears that these chipmakers are beginning to lag somewhat on new technology implementation due to the severity of the downturn. But this means only that the integrated manufacturers will need to do more of their own investments in new capacity. Too much concentration of capacity in Taiwan isn't good for the industry anyway.

With semiconductor inventories low going into the fourth quarter and wafer starts being cut, it seems certain that lead times will increase. Once lead times go out, orders will jump quickly as customers move up their buys to prevent an out-of-parts condition. Watch the distributor turns business -- the short-term orders that come in for delivery within 30 days -- for signs of this happening.


The Wireless Connection
I don't follow Nokia as closely as Intel and Applied Materials, but the company has clearly retained its No. 1 worldwide position. Its newest phones are quickly catching on with consumers just in time for the holiday shopping season. The phone with a built-in camera that can send digital pictures by email wirelessly is going to be a big seller this year.

The worry about when third-generation technology takes off isn't too important right now, because 2 1/2 G is starting to carry the load anyway. What matters most is that the handset market is getting off the 400 million plateau and growing again. Most importantly, it's becoming apparent that, in the telecom world, wireless wins in the long term. For the first time that I can remember -- and perhaps ever -- the number of phone lines into homes is decreasing. More people are adding phones by going wireless, and in-home wireless networking adds to demand for the technology.

Valuations are now a stumbling block for investors looking at tech. But earnings multiples are always highest at cycle lows, so look at price-to-sales. Here we see that Intel, Applied Materials and Nokia recently fell to the 2-3X range, associated with bear-market lows in the past.

So, after a year and a half without tech in my portfolio, I'm getting back in. I'm looking out three to five years for three to five times my money. I see this period as another one of those great opportunities that come along in the market every decade.