-->tja, vielleicht hat sich unser Freund P. Kasriel unbeliebt gemacht. Jedenfalls hat er keinen Maulkorb getragen und wenn man Herrn Greenspan anmacht, muß man wohl mit Gegendruck rechnen. Nicht jede Bank stärkt einem da den Rücken. Aber vielleicht hat er nur Urlaub oder ist krank?!
Ja, das Yale Lawnet ist nicht schlecht. Aber auch Harvard Law School (HLS) bringt häufig gute Sachen völlig gelassen und knallhart.

Hier ein neuer Index für Dich zum Schmunzeln (vielleicht verlässlicher als alle anderen?! ;-):

The recession index

Words that can harm
you
Nov 21st 2002
From The Economist print edition


Less talk of recession, more of deflation

REMEMBER the R-word
index, The
Economist's
alternative indicator of
economic activity? For
America, we count
how many stories in
the New York Times
and the Washington
Post include the word
"recession". Over the
past two decades the
R-count has been
pretty good at
spotting economic
turning-points.
[img][/img]
Unlike official
statistics, this count
has the advantage of
being instantly
available. The R-word
index signalled the
start of recessions in
America in 1981, 1990
and 2001. It also
predicted the end of recession in 1982, but it proved
misleading in the early 1990s, when newspapers
continued to rant about a recession for a year after it
had officially ended in March 1991.

The R-word started to flash red in the first quarter of
last year, when it rose to a rate which has previously
always signalled that a recession has already started.
At the time 95% of American economists said it
would not happen. But we now know that the
American economy did indeed dip into recession in
the first quarter.

So what does the R-word count now tell us? Is the
American economy, as some fear, heading back into
recession? Not yet. After peaking at the end of last
year, the number of stories including the R-word has
fallen back and it has remained below recessionary
levels in the current quarter.

The D-word, on the other hand, is spreading like a
plague. Concerns about deflation are growing in
America and Germany as well as Japan, so our
"D-count" is more global, based on the Financial
Times and the Wall Street Journal. Stories about
deflation have surged this quarter to their highest
since the 1930s. Add in all those other dreaded D
words, debt, default, devaluation and even
depression, and the economic outlook is distinctly
dismal.
Quelle: Economist (nur Abo)