-->>Hallo,
>in unregelmässigen Abständen ist auf comstock.com etwas zum Deflationszyklus zu lesen. Minter und Weiner sehen eine neue Phase gekommen:
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>
>Cycle of Deflation - Competitive Devaluations
>We continue to believe our graph"Cycle of Deflation" (see attachment below) is as pertinent today as it was 3 years ago. In the most recent of our many references to it we have expressed our belief that we were entering the stage of competitive devaluations after going through the stages of excess capacity and pricing power weakness.
>Friday's Wall Street Journal article confirms what we think is taking place presently. Competitive devaluations occur when our trading partners, who are affected by deflation, attempt to keep their currencies low to export goods abroad in order to get their economies out of their economic malaise. Most of us only see the U.S. dollar declining against the euro and believe it is declining against all currencies. And if it continues down against the euro it will eventually make Europe's export industries uncompetitive. The Journal article shows how representatives of U.S. manufacturers have been putting pressure on Asian governments to stop manipulating their currency exchange rates. The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) is accusing Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan of keeping their currencies low either through moral suasion or currency intervention in order to make their export industries more competitive. They know that Japanese officials have been buying U.S. dollars to keep the yen from getting too strong. The NAM estimates that Japan's central bank has bought $75 billion in currency markets over the past 2 years in an effort to boost exports and lift the country out of its long slump. The yen has fallen from 100 to the U.S. dollar in the year 2000 and 80 in 1995 to the present value of 118.
>China, which ran an estimated $100 billion trade surplus with the U.S. for 2002 maintains heavy controls over the exchange rate of the yuan (previously called the renminbi). The yuan trades inside a narrow band of between 8.276 and 8.280 to the U.S. dollar. Their central bank regularly intervenes to hold the yuan in this range. A strong yuan would cut costs of imported equipment, fuel and raw materials for many Chinese companies, but China's textile and electronics exporters constantly lobby Beijing to keep the yuan cheap. The NAM believes if they let the yuan float it would rise significantly.
>Tomorrow as John Snow goes through the confirmation process as the new Treasury Secretary, the NAM is trying to influence senators to determine what his position is on the U.S. dollar. The association had tried in the past to persuade the Clinton and Bush administrations to abandon their strong dollar rhetoric.
>This is just the beginning of the battle of competitive devaluation. Before it ends it will probably turn into a war with the next stage becoming" beggar-thy-neighbor" (or dumping goods on trading partners below cost).
>Stay tuned.
>Einen Überblick über viele Währungen zum USD erhält man in der Wochenzusammenfassung von Northerntrust
>Gruss
>Cosa

Hallo Cosa
Kannst Du mal einen ganz dicken fetten roten Punkt in die Grafik machen damit ich ungefähr weiß wo wir uns jetzt befinden;-)?
Am liebsten wäre mir natürlich ganz unten aber das dürfte wohl nicht der Realität entsprechen oder doch?

Gruß EUKLID und ein Dankeschön für deine immer bestens komponierten Zahlenreihen.
Ich hoffe in Zukunft das hohe C vielleicht wenigstens ab und zu als Erinnerungswert wieder zu beleben.
Alles Gute