-->die Jungs von comstock.com haben sich wieder mit dem Dollar bzw. dessen möglichen Niedergang beschäftigt.

<font size="4">Bad Omens For the Dollar</font>

Two recent items indicate that a long-term move against the dollar may be happening soon. First, according to an article in Oilweek, William Clark of Johns Hopkins says that OPEC is talking about switching the currency used for petroleum transactions from the dollar to the Euro. Although the dollar now accounts for about two-thirds of all official exchange reserves, Clark figures that by 2004 the U.S. population of 280 million and GDP of $10.5 trillion will be up against a roughly comparable EU economy of 450 million people and a GDP of $9.6 trillion. The issue was recently raised in a speech by Javad Yarjani, the head of market analysis for OPEC.

Yarjani further stated, “One of the more compelling arguments for keeping oil pricing and payments in dollars has been that the U.S. remains a large importer of oil, despite being a substantial crude producer itself. However, looking at the statistics of crude oil exports, one notes that the Eurozone is an even larger importer of oil and petroleum products than the U.S.” Clark added that, “The rest of the globe could topple the United States from its hegemonic status whenever they so choose with a concerted abandonment of the dollar standard. This is America’s pre-eminent Achilles Heel.”

Reinforcing OPEC’s talk, Russia reported that it will cut the dollar percentage of its foreign exchange reserves from the current 70% to 50% and increase the Euro portion from 25% to 30%. First Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that 10% of his nation’s reserves should be in gold and the rest in other currencies.

With the U.S. running massive trade deficits and the dollar having already lost 24% in relation to the Euro in the past year, the OPEC and Russian moves could set in motion plans by other central banks to follow suit. If so, the dollar could decline substantially, and, in a classical negative feedback loop, foreign investors in U.S. securities would be inclined to sell major portions of their holdings.

Der Artikel aus 'Oilweek' ist online leider nicht verfügbar.

Bei den erwähnten Ã-lverbrauchszahlen ist mir unklar wie die Region Europa definiert wird, die einen höheren Verbrauch haben soll als die USA. Ungesehen zweifle ich die Zahl erst einmal an. Ist aber auch egal, wenn das Vorhaben tatsächlich umgesetzt werden sollte *g*
Die Legitimation wird dann schon 'gebaut'.

Gruss
Cosa