Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - Fragen - und Antworten von Prechter

-- ELLI --

11.03.2003, 23:02

Fragen - und Antworten von Prechter

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Bob,
How can the psychology and events of hundreds of years ago have a direct
influence on what happens today? - Bill Raddatz

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

The first two
pages of Chapter 13 of The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior explain how.
Hint: Do you celebrate the Fourth of July (or equivalent date in your country)?
How do you feel on that day? Why? Do you celebrate any religious holidays?
Re-read your question. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

Bob:Canada's central bank raised interest rates 25 basis points today, and cited
inflation as the reason. Are they misreading the data? -Gary Lisch

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

The data of the past several weeks does indicate the
effects of inflation, and that is what they are responding to. No mystery there.
- Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

What is the timeframe for your predictions of a meltdown in the Dow and the
global economy in general. Is it a matter of weeks, months, years or decades?
How do you answer your critics who point to the timing of some of your calls for
a crash which were totally premature and thus missed most of the upside in the
bull market? - David

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

We are IN a meltdown. People in the 1930s did not
acknowledge that things were bad until at least 1931, many not until it was
over.My critics are losing so much money that I’m surprised they have time to
gripe. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

The DOW and S&P 500 may be in 3rd wave patterns, but some analysts suggest
that the NASDAQ is in a 5th wave pattern. Do you agree with these general counts?
If not, what is your count? Is there a divergence between the NASDAQ and the
blue chip indices? - Savas Fortis

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

I
think the NASDAQ is like Japan. It will keep looking like a low to most people,
but it won’t stop until it’s trading around 100 or 200. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

Inflation vs Deflation. If the Fed proceeds with its plan to run the printing
press - create money - and foreigners sell their dollar assets in response,
driving the dollar's value lower, does that not have the affect of driving up
prices for imported goods and commodities? We could have much lower prices for
financial assets and real estate, but higher food, energy and metals prices. Are
we not in a much different environment of large domestic and foreign deficits -
much like Germany in the 20's - than in the 30's when the debt was mostly
internal and we were a creditor nation? I have read much of what you have
written on deflation, including your latest Theorist addressing the subject.
However, Bernanke's speech has me fearful that the cash I have in the bank will
lose value as more dollars are created to pay off debt. Thanks-Mark Niedzielski

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

I
can’t make your fear go away. I have written to exhaustion on this subject.
It’s Bernanke vs. 30 trillion in precarious debt. Let’s see which one wins.
- Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

Bob, It seems that one could make a case--at least anecdotally--for suspicious
come-back days in the market. You know--a large, unnamed buyer in the futures
pit, et cetera. Question: Why do you almost never address Fed/ESF manipulation
in general? And can the intervention into our financial markets possibly alter
the wave counts or damage some of our bearish positions? - Charles Slany

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

I
answered this in Conquer the Crash. Forget it. If intervention happens, the
waves will dictate the timing. And then it will fail. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

You expect the DJIA to eventually fall below 1000. When do you think it will
happen? The market has been remarkably resilient since October 2002 and we have
not seen panic/capitulation so far. How far away do you think panic and
capitulation is? - Suyog Bhobe

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

The
market has been garbage since October 2002. The brief rally lasted less than two
months and was not much better than a dead-cat bounce. Overall, it’s a holding
pattern, not a rally. Panic will take place between Dow 7000 and 3700. When, I
can’t say, but it’s very near in my opinion. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

I've read Conquer the Crash and At the Crest of the Tidal Wave, although I'm
currently having problems picking up Socionomics at Amazon.com. I've enjoyed the
books very much and they make inherent sense to me. My question is, what is
America's wave count in an absolute sense relative to other nations after the
second depression ends later in the 21st century? Will we lose our world
supremacy in an absolute sense to a country like China or to to an alliance of
countries? - David Moore

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

England
reigned in GSC one and two. USA reigned in GSC three and will probably be top
dog through most of four. Another area will own GSC five, not the US. My guess
is China. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

Is this a good time to invest in the Rydex Ursa fund? This fund is a reverse
S&P fund. - Harriet

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

Well,
we have identified the rally peaks of the past year, and each one of them was a
great time to buy Ursa. If we have another rally, we’ll try to nail the top of
it. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

Immediately prior to the October low, the EW short-term forecast predicted bonds
would top out and decline with stocks. I asked the EW Message Board to account
for the flow of funds - out of bonds into what? in the event of such a scenario.
The question went unanswered, and it proved very costly to me as the funds
poured into equities. You are again predicting a reversal in bonds in the next
couple of weeks. What makes you so sure this doesn't portend another rally in
stocks, especially if the peak in bonds roughly coincides with the invasion of
Iraq? If bonds and stocks are both selling off, where is the money going,
foreign markets? What indices would anticipate your view of a redirected flow of
funds? - E. David Sandler

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

Sometimes
funds don’t flow. Values just disappear. A decline in one market does not
necessitate a rise in another. The early 1930s is a good example, when every
imaginable investment went down in price (except gold, which was fixed by the
government). As to your specific question, what do you mean, “what makes you
so sure”? We present the evidence and make our calls. We did not just turn
bearish at the October low. If missing the first week or two of a 7-week rally
produces a disaster for you, then you’re going about this wrong. Maybe the
market will rally. It’s POSSIBLE. But you can’t invest on the possible
because anything is possible. You have to invest on the odds. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

In your options video, you use the example of a $100,000 account set aside for
options trading, only part of which is committed at any given time. In your
opinion, is there a"minimum" size of account required to trade
options profitably? I have a regular job and am not in front of the machine all
day. - Dale

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

The
most profitable options accounts begin at zero and stay there. Keep you day job
and don’t trade them. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

Isn't money placed in a no-interest checking account as safe as cash? - Gary
Kraybill

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

Well,
it depends on what bank you place it in! See the banking chapter in Conquer the
Crash. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

Mr. Prechter, You are my favorite writer so far and I enjoy your work very much.
My question to you is, given the upcoming depression, what is it you would
recommend to younger adults to survive and thrive in those years? I am 24. My
friends are about the same age and I have a brother who is 18. Are there any
concepts and ideas that may help them to cope with growing up and competing in
such a depressed world? All are in college, are going to attend college, or have
graduated from college. Thank you, Brian Chan - brian chan

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

Being
in college during a crash is great timing. You can study and come out at the
bottom, ready to make something happen. Also on the positive side, starting out
in tough times gives you a great work ethic that will take you a long way as the
trend rises. Good luck. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

How do all of these reality shows relate to the bear market? Also, why are
gruesome shows like CSI and Dragnet so popular now. Seems to me that murder on
TV is more popular than ever. If I were guessing, the so called reality shows
are actually an escape from reality and the murders reflect the killing everyone
is taking in the market. Television seems to be a reflection of the social mood
which means Friends should get the ax soon and be replaced by Enemies. Thanks. -
Scott

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

Forget
murder. Torture is big on TV. I have seen 4 torture scenes in the past 3 weeks.
And this isn’t even the movies but TV.Am I correct that you are predicting the
ax murder of “Friends”? Yes, I agree. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

You often refer to Japan for what historically has happened to them and what
probably will happen to the US stock market and economy. As mentioned in several
newsletters, one of the US's largest contributor to a declining consumer economy
is the high debt, both personal and corporate. I have understood that Japan has
long been know for individual/personal savings being the best in the world, that
debt is shunned as part of their culture. Would you comment please? - Jacquie
Nevinger

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

No,
Japan engaged in a debt orgy in the 1980s, to the extent of multi-generational
mortgages! Also, to the extent that they are better savers, their experience
will be that much better than ours. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

Bob, Both you and Steve have shown from time to time how a large percentage of
investors have remained almost fully invested during the last two or three years
and that this and the Investors Intelligence bullish data shows that there's a
lot of selling still to come. How does this reconcile with the 2.2 trillion they
say is on the sidelines in money market funds ready to power the market higher?
- paul korth

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

To
answer that question, you would have to know the whole history of “money on
the sidelines,” not just the latest figure. Also, this money is not money but
invested in debt instruments. Much of it won’t survive. Further, 2.2 trillion
against 30 trillion in outstanding debt is really not much money. Finally, waves
are about desire, not potential. Who says it’s “ready to power the market
higher”? How do they know? - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

South American countries are experiencing currency devaluation, inflation and
high interest rates. Could this happen here? - Judi Watson

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

You can’t have a currency devaluation unless your
currency is pegged to something, and ours isn’t. So Argentina, which pegged
its currency to the US dollar, had to devalue. The dollar floats freely so is
already priced where it should be. As to inflation and high interest rates, that
is discussed in great detail in Conquer the Crash, and already rates on secure
debt have fallen and fallen, not risen. I can’t make a case for inflation. -
Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

I bought your book in October of 2002. I have read it and have utilized some of
your advice. What would you change about the book if you were writing it now? -
Roger W. Collins

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

I would update the charts to now. Otherwise, nothing
important. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

My experience with EWI has been that while you are right on with the ultimate
direction of the market, your timing is sometimes a little"early." I
know that some roundly criticize you for it, but prudent, thinking people would
consider it a virtue. Thank you for all that you do, and please continue to step
way out on the limb. Those of us that"get it" respect and appreciate
you for doing so. - ron porter

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

Thanks, mate. Sometimes we’re a lot early. Sometimes
we’re right on time. The point is that we anticipate CHANGE, and most people
just get more conviction the longer a trend goes, which is the standard approach
and deadly as poison. - Bob Prechter

<img alt="Question:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-question.gif" width="111" height="34">

Much thanks to Bob and the rest of the EWI team for doing this Q&A session.
My associates and I that subscribe to the various EWI services have a great deal
of confidence in you and this is appreciated, particularly in these seriously
uncertain times. Question: Which do you feel will depreciate faster from this
level as Wave 3 unfolds, the S&P 500 or NDX? - Orville Cox

<img alt="Answer:" src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/hd-answer.gif" width="111" height="34">

As the trend matures, blue chips become leaders. So the
answer is the S&P. Although the NDX is not done yet by any means. - Bob
Prechter

Reikianer

12.03.2003, 00:56

@ -- ELLI --

Re: Fragen - und Antworten von Prechter

-->Q: South American countries are experiencing currency devaluation, inflation and
high interest rates. Could this happen here? - Judi Watson

A: You can’t have a currency devaluation unless your
currency is pegged to something, and ours isn’t. So Argentina, which pegged
its currency to the US dollar, had to devalue. The dollar floats freely so is
already priced where it should be. As to inflation and high interest rates, that
is discussed in great detail in Conquer the Crash, and already rates on secure
debt have fallen and fallen, not risen. I can’t make a case for inflation. -
Bob Prechter

Dazu: THE ARGENTINE CURRENCY DEVALUATION
by Ronnie Bloom

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0304.htm
<ul> ~ http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0304.htm</ul>

dottore

12.03.2003, 09:26

@ -- ELLI --

Re: Fragen - und Antworten von Prechter

-->Tja, es ist halt wie es ist, diese Sentenzen sollte sich jeder/jede hier besonders gut merken:

"A decline in one market does not necessitate a rise in another. The early 1930s is a good example, when every imaginable investment went down in price (except gold, which was fixed by the government)."

Und:

"(The) money is not money but invested in debt instruments. Much of it won’t survive."

Und über"cash at the sidelines":

"Further, 2.2 trillion against 30 trillion in outstanding debt is really not much money."

Sowie grundsätzlich:

"Finally, waves are about desire, not potential. Who says it’s (= money at the sidelines) “ready to power the market higher”? How do they know?"

[Abgesehen davon geht das auch gar nicht, das mit dem"Powern", da die 2,2 Billionen"Money" bekanntlich bereits invested sind und die 30 Bio Debts ohnehin niemals bezahlen können, nicht einen Cent davon.]

Gruß und Danke fürs Reinstellen!

Luigi 12.03.2003, 15:17 @ dottore	Re: @dottore Setz dich doch einfach in den Email-Verteiler von BOB Prechter.
	-->Hallo, dottore Setz dich doch einfach in den Email-Verteiler (CLUB EWI) von BOB Prechter. Kommen schon tolle Sachen wie die 4 Glaskugeln. Auf jeder steht z.b. Debt Bubble...Bubble Das war wirklich gut. Shoping bei Bobby:-) Würden sich bestimmt gut machen auf Schremmps Schreibtisch! MFG

Frank 12.03.2003, 19:52 @ Luigi	Jetzt Prechter auf Deutsch: s. Finanzbuchverlag (owT)
	-->

Fragen - und Antworten von Prechter

Re: Fragen - und Antworten von Prechter

Re: Fragen - und Antworten von Prechter

Re: @dottore Setz dich doch einfach in den Email-Verteiler von BOB Prechter.

Jetzt Prechter auf Deutsch: s. Finanzbuchverlag (owT)