-->Hallo,


~ zunächst die Factory Orders - die Industrieaufträgen für den Februar. [/b]

<center> Indikatorenbeschreibung
~ Originalquelle </ul>


<center>[img]" alt="[image]" style="margin: 5px 0px 5px 0px" /> </center>


~ dann die Weekly Petroleum Data - die wöchtlichen Ã-ldaten der EIA für die Woche bis zum 28.3.2003.

<ul><ul>
~ Rohöl - ex SPR: 280,7 Mio. Barrel (+6,8 MB; +2,5% W/W; -15,2% J/J)
~ Benzin: 200,7 MB (+1,7 MB; +0,9% W/W; -6,2% J/J)
~ Destillate: 97,9 MB (-1,6 MB; -1,6% W/W; -21,0% J/J)
~ Heizöl: 36,7 MB (+1,2 MB; +3,3% W/W; -23,1% J/J)
~ Raffinerieauslastung: 93,5% (+2,5% W/W), 4-Wo.-Durchschnitt: 91,5% </ul></ul>

<ul>
~ die Zahlen:
~ Der Input der Raffinerien verzeichnete die Woche einen Anstieg auf 15,1 Mio. Barrel täglich; die die Produktion von Jet Fuel und Benzin blieb dabei fast unverändert, während die Destillatproduktion weiter um 100.000 Barrel fiel.
~ Die Kapazitätsauslastung der Raffinerien stieg von 91,0% auf 93,5% mit einem 4-Wochendurchschnitt von 91,5%.
~ Die Rohölimporte einschliesslich derjenigen der strategischen Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
stiegen die Woche auf den höchsten je registrierten Stand von durchschnittlich 10,4 Mio. Barrel pro Tag. Der 4-Wochendurchschnitt liegt mit 400.000 Barrel über dem Vorjahresniveau bei jetzt 9,1 Mio Barrel tgl.. Zum einen hätten die Importe aus Venezuela fast das normale Niveau erreicht, zudem seien die Importe aus Saudi-Arabien drastisch angestiegen.
~ Kein Wunder als, dass die Rohölbestände ohne SPR angesichts der hohen Importe um 6,8 Mio. Barrel stiegen. Bei den Destillaten war ein Rückgang zu beobachten, der vom Diesel verursacht wurde, die Heizölbestände stiegen merklich. Die Benzinbestände notierten 1,7 Mio. Barrel höher, liegen aber immer noch unter der für die Jahreszeit üblichen Spanne.
~ Die Nachfrage nach Benzin liegt 0,1% unter, die der Destillaten 10,1% und die nach Jet Fuel 2,9% über dem Vorjahresstand.
~ Die zweite Woche in Folge ging der Benzinpreis zurück, liegt auf dem niedrigsten Niveau seit dem 10.Februar, so musste für eine Gallone"regular" Benzin im Einzelhandel -4,1 Cents oder -2,4% weniger bezahlt werden. Der Benzinpreis liegt bei $1,649; im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum sind das dann aber 27,8 Cents oder 20,3% mehr.
~ Indikatoren-Beschreibung Ã-ldaten
~ Link zur Originalquelle</ul>


<center> Indikatoren-Beschreibung Hypothekenbericht
~ Link zur Originalquelle</ul>


<center>[img]" alt="[image]" style="margin: 5px 0px 5px 0px" /> </center>


Fazit: Die Industrieaufträge enttäuschten, das Ergebnis fügt sich nahtlos in die Sentimentdaten des verarbeitenden Gewerbes. Die Hypothekenanträge nehmen die erwartete Pause. Es ist kaum anzunehmen, dass sie erneut Flügel bekommen, aber da bin ich schon einmal eines anderen belehrt worden.


viele Grüsse
Cosa

ich stelle noch einen reuters-Text rein, der m.E. einen Bereich beleuchtet, der neben dem Rohöl und seinen Produkten, eine immer wichtigere Rolle spielen wird: Erdgas.

Nicht nur, dass die Preise seit geraumer Zeit am steigen sind, eine zurückgehende Eigenproduktion und Bestände, haben gestern erstmals in der Meldung eines Engpasses der nationalen Einkaufsmanager gemündet.

U.S. will need to turn to LNG to close supply gap
New York |Reuters | 02-04-2003

With U.S. natural gas output expected to be on the decline for most of this decade, the nation will need to turn to imports of liquefied natural gas to close a looming supply gap, energy analysts said.

Output from the nation's gas fields, which slipped some 5 per cent in 2002, is expected to shrink another two per cent this year, as cash-strapped energy firms focus more on improving balance sheets than finding new supply.

But analysts say the production declines go deeper than a temporary lack of investment in drilling, noting most of the easy onshore and shallow water fields have been tapped, while some promising prospects are likely to remain off limits for environmental reasons.

"We think LNG will be a very important part of the supply mix. Without it, we'll have difficulty keeping up with gas demand," said Kevin Petak, director at consultant firm Energy and Environmental Analysis (EEA) in Virginia.

Natural gas, seen as cleaner burning than either coal or oil, has become the fuel of choice for homes, industry and utilities, and demand is expected to stay on an upward track, primarily because of wider use in new gas-fired power plants.

U.S. gas consumption could hit 30 trillion cubic feet by 2015, up more than 35 per cent from about 22 tcf last year, according to government data.

"In the lower-48 and Canada, I do not see sufficient production growth to offset the growth in demand. If we assume gas production will hold steady or decline, you have to look at what fills the gap, and LNG becomes the next best economic increment," said Rusty Cates, vice president at International Gas Consulting in Houston.

LNG, a super-cooled and compressed form of natural gas, currently meets only about 1 per cent of total U.S. gas demand, or about 220 billion cubic feet in 2002.

EEA's Petak and others see LNG's share growing to 8 per cent or more by 2010, as suppliers are forced to rely on imports to close the projected supply gap this decade.

"There are two ways to close the gap: further demand destruction by high prices or with LNG," said Bob Ineson, a director at Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).

While LNG's higher cost has often been a deterrent to wider use, analysts say the recent leveling of gas prices above $5 per million British thermal units has put LNG back in focus.

"It's not a difficult assumption to think gas prices will stay above the $3.25 threshold. We've reached a new, higher-priced equilibrium in gas prices," Cates said.

But increasing imports of LNG would not come easily, with only three terminals currently operating in the U.S. and another slated to open this spring.

Total annual capacity of the four is about 830 bcf, with another 600 bcf possible in coming years if proposed expansion plans were completed.

Analysts say billions more in capital investments would be needed for new liquefaction facilities overseas, tankers and regasification terminals here to meet growing gas demand.

"There's enough gas globally out there, but the problem is getting it here will require significant investment," Ineson said, estimating that one liquefaction facility, several tankers and one regasification terminal would cost some $3 billion to $5 billion.

Despite the need for new facilities, analysts said building them in the U.S. would face some serious hurdles. For one, there are deep-seated concerns about safety and security, particularly after the terror attacks in 2001.

There are also NIMBY (not in my back yard) concerns, with few, if any, communities likely to welcome the sitting of a new regasification facility in their neighbourhoods.

"The highest value facilities would be away from the production zone (in the U.S. Gulf) and near population centres on the East and West Coast, but most people in the industry do not believe they can build there," Cates said.

Analysts say building terminals far offshore, then connecting them to the mainland by pipeline, or sitting them in nearby countries like Mexico or Bahamas could be viable options.

"Out-of-sight, out-of-mind projects address NIMBY concerns. You can see these projects going forward," Ineson said.

As for objections that LNG would increase the nation's reliance on foreign imports since some of the main sources of supply could come from the Middle East, West Africa or Asia, analysts generally agree there are few options.

"We already have to import a lot of gas from Canada. I'm not sure there's much of an alternative," Ineson said.