-->Erst muß die Regierung von Ghana ihre 17%-Beteiligung hergeben und vor allem die Goldene Aktie (=Vetorecht). Lonmin hält ebenfalls noch 28%.
Trotzdem zeigt diese beabsichtigte Übernahme wieder mal die Richtung: Die großen Minen wollen ihre Reserven via M&A aufstocken, da sie selbst nicht genug neue Goldfunde machen, um den Schwund der Reserven aufzuhalten.
Auch Explorationswerte sollten weiterhin aussichtsreich sein.
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AngloGold, Ashanti to create new number one
By: Stewart Bailey
Posted: 2003/05/16 Fri 12:00 | © Mineweb 1997-2003
JOHANNESBURG - African gold producers AngloGold and Ashanti Goldfields today said they were in merger talks aimed at producing the world’s largest gold producer. If successful, the $983 million deal would create a pan-African gold company with production of around 7.6 million ounces, making it comfortably larger than North American producer Newmont, which at a shade over 7 million ounces if the world’s current number one.
The joint statement released by the two this morning came after a run in Ashanti’s share price in recent weeks, on speculation that it was a takeover target for one of the world’s gold majors.
Ashanti’s share price opened the year at $5 in New York and closed last night at $7.10 - a gain of 23 percent. The run over the past 8 days has been all the more remarkable as the share has run from $6.08 to its current price of $7.10 - up 14 percent. The run, presumably sparked by leaked news of the imminent merger, prompted the early release of the confirmation of talks between the two.
“(The) boards of Ashanti and AngloGold are in discussions regarding a proposed merger of the two companies at a ratio of 26 AngloGold shares for every 100 Ashanti shares or global depository receipts,” the companies said in a statement. It cautioned that there was no certainty of success.
The deal values Ashanti at a 33 percent premium to its 30-day trading average of $5.91 a share.
Confident
Mineweb first reported the likelihood of a merger between the two on 29 January this year, days before a due diligence deadline given to AngloGold by Ashanti was to expire. Asked for early views on the possible merger, Johannesburg gold analysts said the deal looked to be a good one for AngloGold.
“The fact that they’ve been crawling all over Ashanti’s assets since the beginning of the year and that they’ve now released the statement, means they’ve got a high level of confidence that it will happen,” said one senior analyst.
He said the deal was cheap on a price to earnings basis for AngloGold, as well as on a market capitalisation per reserve ounce basis - the total value of the company divided by the number of reserve ounces. “AngloGold’s market cap per reserve ounce is something like $102/oz against Ashanti which is around $52/oz,” said the analyst.
Question marks erased?
But the old question marks remain around the deal. Top of the list is the Ghanaian government’s stance on its 17 percent stake in Ashanti, as well as its ‘golden share’ in the company, which is the West African country’s most prized corporate icon.
The Golden share confers a range of special rights on the state over and above its status as the second biggest shareholder. These include a casting vote - or effective veto - on any merger or major corporate activity, a right which has deterred a series of potential suitors over the years. AngloGold and Ashanti chief executive Sam Jonah - a longtime campaigner for an easing of the government’s hold on Ashanti - are likely to have made a strong case to the government for the merger. Andy Quinn, managing director of CIBC World Markets, Ashanti’s adviser on the deal, would not comment on the progress of discussions with the government.
World platinum number three Lonmin, which holds a 28 percent stake in Ashanti, confirmed it was in talks with AngloGold over the sale of its shares. Discussions with the major shareholder ahead of the announcement of the deal is a lesson learnt by AngloGold after failing to court Franco Nevada, the biggest shareholder in Normandy, before it launched its ill-fated assault on the Australian producer in 2001.
There is also the question of the $75 million in convertible notes held by the a consortium of banks, which can be converted into Ashanti stock at $5.40 a share - 24 percent below last night’s close.
But punters and speculators will be carefully eyeing the possibility of a counterbid in coming weeks. Canadian gold miner Barrick, which is desperately looking to sell the market a credible growth story, has gone to great lengths to convince the market of its acclimatisation to African risk. Placer too, has settled in well at South Deep and could kick start a somewhat somnambulant corporate strategy by having a tilt at Ashanti.
Gold Fields already has a large footprint in Ghana at its Tarkwa and Damang operations and might be loathe to let this opportunity pass it by; its major shareholder Anglo American, which holds a 57 percent stake in AngloGold, may could dampen its ambitions somewhat.
It's early days yet in what could become a protracted bidding process, but the early betting is that AngloGold is expected to have tied up the loose ends - convertible notes, the government, rival bidders and all - after paying hefty school fees in Adelaide last year.
<ul> ~ http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256D280039680D?OpenDocument</ul>
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