Hi, irgendwo (leider nicht markiert, dummes Viech, ich) fand ich eine Frage nach dem Spread aller Spreads.

Das stand vor längerem schon wie in Stein gemeißelt:


TODAY'S COMMODITIES

Platinum/gold spread should narrow
August 7, 2000

By Jim Baugh, Thedealingfloor.com

The spread between gold and platinum has widened dramatically over the last
several months to nearly $300 an ounce. Over the past 25 years the spread
between the two metals has averaged around $95-$100 an ounce. Now, several
market conditions are developing that should contribute to a near-term
narrowing of the gap (ie, platinum prices declining and gold prices steady
and/or rising).

Platinum, benefiting from an explosive move in palladium, has risen
recently to 12-year highs above $600 an ounce. Promised Russian
shipments of the two metals were delayed several times this year,
contributing to the price boost. But now reports of deliveries are coming
forth. According to Reuters, Russia’s Norilsk Nickel plant “has been
steadily exporting the two metals since March and has even made
one-time deliveries to Japanese customers ahead of settling long term
contracts". Both metals tumbled last week on the news.
Norilsk chairman Yury Kotlyar said the company had been steadily
exporting platinum group metals to the world markets since March,
when the government approved the PGM exports quotas for 2000. He
said the recent surge in platinum group metal prices was due to
reluctance to sell the metals by the Central Bank of Russia and
Gokhran, the state depository for precious metals.
Russia produces 68% of the world’s supply of palladium, but only 25%
of the world’s platinum. Since there are other, more reliable sources of
platinum (South Africa primarily), we expect the “artificially” high
platinum prices to fall more sharply than palladium, which remains
susceptible to more Russian delays. Latest price action bears that out:
on Friday apot platinum was down 7.2% and palladium was off 6.6%.
General Motors (GM), the world's largest automaker, said on Thursday
that it was investigating ways of reducing the palladium and platinum
content of its car catalysts. The company will also be implementing
heightened recycling efforts of used catalytic converters. Chairman Jack
Smith said, “Both strategies are important to reduce the reliance on
sources in Russia and South Africa.”
Gold is finding support in the $270-$275 an ounce area, an 11-week low.
Since this level is also where the chart gap was filled in May, additional
technical support is provided.
According to the most recent Commitment of Traders figures from the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the commercial traders in
Comex gold are net short by 18,857 contracts. If gold can break above
overhead resistance at $295, a massive short-covering rally could ensue.
Rallies of this type occurred in February, when gold jumped over $60 an
ounce in less than two weeks, and last September when gold gained
over $80 an ounce in less than three weeks.
The US dollar, whose strength over the last several months has capped
gold’s advances, appears to have topped at the May highs near 113 on
the Dollar Index.
We believe the Federal Reserve Board is nearing the end of the higher
interest rate policy that has been so supportive to the dollar. Without the
Fed’s support, the dollar is likely to correct its recent rally and pressure
could be lifted from gold.
Many analysts expect US equity markets to experience another
dramatic sell-off that would send the major indices under the lows set
last spring. Since investors would be exiting the market and sellers
outnumber buyers significantly, sharp declines in US stocks typically
reduce the demand for dollars. Moreover, as foreign investors pull out,
they convert dollars into their home currencies, which often creates
waves of dollar selling. Once again, US dollar weakness is likely to be a
positive for gold prices.

Technically, platinum is exhibiting the characteristics of a blow-off top and a
sharp gap down. The rally above $600 was almost vertical and the decline from
such a high could be precipitous.

Gold, on the other hand, is testing the support just above $270. We expect this
level to hold and provide a solid base for price advancement.


Dem habe ich bis heute nix hinzu zu fügen. Bin wohl auch a bisserl zu dumm dafür. Andererseits: Auf Blow-offs bin ich so scharf wie auf frische, grüne Dornbuschblättchen.

L.

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