-->The"Five Years 'Til Tragedy" Rule

The Daily Reckoning

Baltimore, Maryland

Wednesday, 10 December


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*** Watch out. The gods are setting us up!

*** Chinese sell Treasuries... and buy oil... dollar
falls... gold rises... derivative interest skyrockets...

*** Debt to GDP goes mad... how one man turned a $30,000
grubstake into $80 million in about a decade... and more!

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Those whom the gods would destroy are granted their first
wish...

It must have seemed like a wish come true 32 years ago,
when the whole world's money system came to rest on the
dollar... and the dollar alone. With no need to settle up in
real money (gold), Americans could buy all they wanted -
without ever having to pay for it. Or so it appeared.

And so they began a spending spree that continues to
today... and now threatens to destroy them. First, they
spent their earnings... then they spent their savings... and
then they mortgaged their houses and ran up credit card
bills. It looked like such a good deal... the more they
spent, the richer they felt. Stocks and real estate prices
rose - as the foreigners recycled their own money back into
U.S. assets. They did not seem to realize that they were
exporting their own jobs... and the titles to their own
houses... and getting gee-gaws and gadgets in return.

And now we read in the Wall Street Journal that the Chinese
are selling U.S. Treasuries. They do so to avoid the
falling dollar... and in anticipation of a revalued yuan.

Once again, Americans who were so desperate to see China
let its currency rise against the dollar may get their wish
- and live to regret it. (Addison hints at another motive
below.)

The Chinese are blockheads. Otherwise, they wouldn't have
gone along with America's bamboozle for so long. Selling
things to people who can't pay for them is not a reliable
way to build an economy. And sooner or later, the
blockheads are bound to realize it.

The remarkable thing is that it has taken them so long. But
this hustle has been going on for so long... and with such
impressive results... that hardly anyone can believe it will
ever end.

In the stock market, for example, you might have thought
investors would have learned their lesson after the bear
market began in 2000. Uh-uh. They were still
confident... still hallucinating... and still ready to make a
wish and seal a deal."Please let stock prices come back,"
they must have prayed,"I promise I'll sell this time."

The market gods set them up again...

"The truly amazing aspect of the ongoing U.S. financial
bubble is how long it has endured," comments Steve Puetz.
"Normally, the first crash will burst the bubble, sending
the associated country into severe recession or depression.
It's now quite obvious that the bursting of the Nadaq
bubble in 2000 did not break the speculative fever. After a
period of hesitation that lasted several months,
speculators are back buying stocks on margin and bidding
prices up to insane levels.

"In particular, with the technology fever behind them, this
time speculators have turned their attention to any stock
that's low-priced. Speculators now favor low-priced, thinly
capitalized, financially troubled stocks. These are
companies where the stock's price can be pushed
significantly higher with relatively small purchases of
shares. That's great during an uptrend. However, when the
subsequent downturn finally does arrive, relatively small
amounts of selling of thinly capitalized shares can also
cause a stock's price to collapse. And that's what will
surely happen when the current low-priced stock mania goes
the way of all manias - with a bursting bubble leading to a
market crash.

"The most alarming increase in speculation has been in
financial derivatives. The explosion in derivative open-
interest began during the last half of 1999. The market
panic during 2000 only halted the rise in open-interest for
one year. Then during early 2001, the derivative market
speculation resumed...

"The derivative market speculation this year is the
greatest ever. With still one month to go, the open-
interest in financial derivatives has increased by over 200
million contracts - to 733 million. The last serious
liquidation in derivative open-interest was after the 1987
stock market crash. Right before the 1987 crash, derivative
open-interest stood at 20 million contracts. By early 1988,
half of that open-interest was liquidated. Furthermore,
derivative open-interest didn't exceed the 20 million
contracts again until June of 1992 - five years after the
1987 crash.

"Right now, derivative open-interest is 36 times greater
than it was before the 1987 crash. So there really isn't
any reasonable comparison between the two speculations. The
amount of leverage used in the current bubble market is
many times greater than the leverage used during 1987.
That's also true when the leverage is adjusted for money-
supply growth, income growth, or market capitalization
increases. As the bubble bursts, and all of this margin-
debt and open-interest is finally liquidated, the selling
pressure will overwhelm the marketplace and cause the
greatest stock market crash ever."

When that will happen, we don't know. That it will happen
at all, we can't be sure. But readers are advised not to
bet too heavily against it.

Meanwhile, Addison Wiggin, holding down the fort in Paris,
brings more news:

------------

Addison Wiggin at the DR HQ...

-"I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings," the economist
Gary Shilling said in Forbes yesterday."But if you expect
the economy and the market to keep climbing next year, you
will be sorely disappointed." Shilling's beef with the
'recovery' is a familiar one: jobs.

-"The sober truth is," Shilling explains,"that cutting
costs is the only route to profit salvation these days.
Most costs, directly, or indirectly, are labor. And that
means more layoffs." On Monday, we took a look at the
Bureau of much be-Labored Statistics website and discovered
- right there in liquid crystals - that if you count all
the discouraged, disparaged and disgusted workers, the rate
of unemployment actually rose to 9.7% in November... rather
than falling to 5.9% as the financial media has been so
keen to report. Shilling adds that the average time someone
spends hot-footing it in the unemployment line has
increased to 19.4 weeks in the May-October period, up from
17 in same period the year before.

-"Optimists," warns Mr. Shilling,"seize upon any shred of
evidence that employment [the missing link in the evolution
of a full-blown recovery] is coming back." That's what all
the hubbub over the 5.9% figure... and the fervor over
accounting for the 'self-employed' is about. Floyd Norris,
crunching the numbers for the NY Times, concludes that
"without [the increase of 156,000 self-employed in
November], it would be far harder to put a rosy tint on the
employment. But with [it], it is possible to point to one
government survey that indicates more people are working
now than at any time before."

- Shilling's not buying it."Sorry, the party cannot
continue," he concludes."Cost-cutting layoffs will squeeze
consumer incomes. Fiscal and monetary stimuli [the likes of
which the world has rarely seen] have masked the
devastating effects of layoffs, and are fading, too."

- Without consumer incomes rising, retailers are likely to
suffer droopy sales during the holidays. They now have a
big snowstorm to blame, too."I think we pretty much lost
the weekend," Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock
First Boston told Reuters. Following the deluge, retail
sales fell below a"five year average pattern" and threaten
weak numbers for the entire holiday-spiked consumption
binge.

- The Dow bumped its head on the 10,000 ceiling yesterday.
But then the gray old lady of Wall Street tumbled back on
her rump, falling 41 to 9923. Her younger, more sprightly
compatriot, the tech-savvy Nasdaq also slipped on New
York's icy sidewalks, sliding 40 points to 1,908. From
where we sit, the psychological barriers at $400 for gold
and $1.20 euro - both confidently surpassed last week - are
far more telling trends than a weakening rally in equities.

- The financial media blamed the selling of shares on the
Fed. At their meeting yesterday, the FOMC decided not only
to leave rates unchanged at 1%, but also to leave the
phrase"for a considerable period" in their statement
following the meeting. Analysts presume this will mean they
won't raise rates through March 2004.

- Much as we like heaping ire on the world's most
profligate central bank, we're inclined to go along with
our friend John Mauldin on this one. Even if they wanted to
raise rates, the Fed has its hands tied in the election
year. Any change in the wording... heck, any indication that
the battle against 'disinflation' has come to an
end... would shut down the speculative rally on Wall Street
and cause homeowners to cringe. Not exactly the ideal
conditions for an eager incumbent hitting the campaign
trail.

- Which leaves them where?"Central banks have made the
riskiest bets in modern history," writes Stephen Roach in
Morgan Stanley's forecast report for 2004-2005."Policy
rates [are at] 'zero' in Japan, 1% in America, and 2% in
Europe. At the same time, fiscal authorities have upped the
ante as never before, with government budget deficits of 7%
in Japan, 4% in America, and 3% in Europe. And the
authorities have colluded in currency management in a
period of unprecedented external imbalances."

- Following such stimulus,"Most [central bankers and
financial analysts] believe that the long nightmare that
began in early 2000 is now over. I don't," Roach concludes.
"In my view, there was never an easy way out, especially as
the authorities reacted to the popping of one bubble by
creating other bubbles. The bill for speculative excesses
and global imbalances has yet to be paid. As we peer into
2005, that's the biggest risk of all."

- Meanwhile, the pao mo bubble stretched a little thinner
yesterday. The Financial Times reports that in the best
first day performance of an IPO on the NYSE in three years,
a Chinese Internet company called Ctrip.com jumped 88% from
$16 to nearly $34. The fact that the offer began in the $16
- $18 range reflects keen investor interest in the stock in
advance of the offering. Next up? China Life, the
mainland's largest insurance company."That offering," says
the FT,"the world's biggest this year, is oversubscribed
10 times."

- Chinese stocks have soared in popularity, even since this
past summer."After such a huge run up," says Richard Gao,
co-manager at the Matthews China Fund,"we are cautious in
the short term that valuations are running ahead of
fundamentals. But in absolute terms, these companies are
still not that expensive." Even after big gains, many
Chinese stocks are still trading in the 12-14 P/E range.

- Still, sino-sceptics abound. Roach is one of them."Asia
has become the hope of those who believe a U.S.-centric
world has found a new growth engine," he writes."I don't
buy it. Today's Asia is basically a story of China and
Japan, with increased emphasis on the former. Our operative
view on China is that the authorities are engineering a
soft landing after an unsustainable growth surge in 2003.

-"On the back of a credit bubble, excess is evident in
coastal-region property markets - especially Shanghai - and
in infrastructure spending. China's central bank has moved
to tighten monetary policy, and bank lending is slowing in
response. We expect this reduction in the supply of credit
to temper property and infrastructure investment in 2004,
leading to a significant reduction in Chinese import
demand, from 40% growth in 2003 to 20% in 2004."

- And what's this? Doug Noland points out that central bank
of China was a net seller of U.S. government debt in
September. What are they doing with all the dollars they've
been hoarding? They could even be following Wang Jian's
recommendation to stockpile oil in long-term preparations
for a war between the U.S. and Europe.

- Whatever the case,"If pursued, China's diversification
away from U.S. government bonds will be bad news for
Washington," says Noland,"which has relied heavily on
China's debt purchases to fund its [twin] fiscal and
current-account deficits." We Daily Reckoneers often wonder
when the kindness of strangers will give way to apathy.
Perhaps it has already begun.

- In London, to much fanfare, the World Gold Council
launched its Gold Bullion Security yesterday. The new
security effectively allows investors to"buy and sell gold
on the London Stock Exchange for the very first time." The
launch follows a similar success in Australia... and bodes
well for an upcoming issue in the United States of America.

------------

Bill Bonner back in Baltimore....

*** The dollar hit another low against the euro yesterday -
the 8th in a row. Gold rose, briefly, over $410. Both gold
and the euro have had nice runs against the dollar; do not
be surprised by a pullback.

Still, there are two reasons why these trends are not
likely to come to an end anytime soon: the U.S. trade
deficit... and the U.S. federal deficit. The trade deficit
now requires about $1.5 billion in new lending from
overseas - every day. With not enough money coming forward,
the dollar is falling. As it falls, fewer and fewer
foreigners see the benefit of holding U.S. dollar assets.
On the contrary, they will sell... pushing the dollar
farther, and perhaps faster, that people expect. So far,
the dollar has fallen more than 25% against the euro - with
no improvement whatsoever in the trade deficit. This
suggests that it will have to fall much, much further.

"The bill for speculative excesses and global imbalances
has yet to be paid," warns Stephen Roach.

Adding to the bill are appalling spending increases and
deficits of the Federal government. No democrat could have
dug a deeper debt hole than the one hollowed out by the
George II administration. Spending is rising twice as fast
as under Clinton... and more than twice as fast as GDP. This
year, federal spending per household will top $20,000.

Everybody wants something for nothing. Yesterday's paper
brought a picture of a pack of feeble scoundrels gathered
around George Bush while he signed a bill to provide pills
for old people. Again, it must have seemed like a wish come
true for the drug companies and graybeard mooches."Keeping
our commitment to seniors," was the caption."Pandering for
votes," would have been a better one."To hell with the
young, who will have to pay the bill for this nonsense,"
the story might have explained."These geriatric drug
addicts vote!"

Americans must think they will never have to pay the
federal bills... or the personal ones. Somehow, it will all
work out... they must say to themselves. And it will,
somehow. But not without regrets.

Short-term interest rates will remain at Eisenhower era
lows, said the Fed yesterday. But it is a very different
world we live in today, Kurt Richebächer points out in his
December letter. In 1959, non-financial borrowing rose 1.4
times the increase in GDP for the year. In 2002, non-
financial borrowing totaled $1.34 trillion - 7 times the
increase in GDP. It was also true that in 1959, Americans
were borrowing the money"from themselves." Net national
savings totaled 12% of GDP. Now, with almost no national
savings of their own, they rely on the kindness of
strangers. Net national savings in 2002 were 0.6% of GDP.

Before too long, we predict, the dollar will barely buy 60%
of a euro. Foreigners will hold it in contempt and be
reluctant to take it. Each dollar will be an emblem of
recklessness, a scarlet letter of financial sin. Traveling
abroad, Americans will be embarrassed to open their
wallets.

*** With contempt for the dollar will come a growing
contempt for all things American. After marveling at the
miraculous U.S. economy for so many years... foreigners will
wonder how they could have been duped by it."It was all
smoke and mirrors," they will say to themselves. They will
wonder how Americans could have been so stupid as to think
they could have spent their way to prosperity. Foreigners
will also wonder why they once lent Americans so much
money... especially when they knew all along that the whole
thing would end badly! (If there's a bright side, our
colleague Steve Sjuggerud thinks he has found it... in
today's Daily Reckoning PRESENTS, below... )

*** We found ourselves wondering yesterday. We were
permitting ourselves a little euro snobbism. Why is it that
even fairly low-wage workers in Europe - such as tollbooth
attendants, cab drivers, or airline employees - seem
capable and presentable... while in America, these jobs seem
to be held by people who, at best, could be described as
friendly slobs?

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The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: How one man turned $30,000
into $80 million outside the stock market... in economic
conditions eerily similar to our own...


THE"FIVE YEARS 'TIL TRAGEDY" RULE
By Steve Sjuggerud

Michael Marcus turned a small trading stake of $30,000 into
$80 million dollars in about 10 years...

Marcus made these profits during the 1970s - one of the
worst times in history to be an investor. Yet,"I was
making at least 100 percent a year for years and years,"
Marcus writes in the book, Market Wizards."I think the
markets were so good that... you just couldn't lose.
Fortunes were being made."

Huh? The markets of the '70s were good? What is he talking
about? How did he do it? Today, we are seeing the same
"setup" conditions as Marcus saw in the early 1970s. When
you understand it, you'll see that the current opportunity
is extraordinary...

Five years after the stock market crashed in 1857, the
price of gold and other"commodities" began to skyrocket.
Why? To finance the War, Lincoln took us off the gold
standard in 1862 and, for the first time, the U.S.
government printed paper money that was not backed by
anything.

Speculators knew it was coming. And knew what it meant.
Legendary speculator Daniel Drew said,"I never made more
money or had four years that were all in all more genuinely
prosperous, than those four years of the [Civil] War."
After gold soared, crude oil was next, in 1865.

According to Edward Chancellor's Devil Take the Hindmost,
"the price of crude oil increased NINEFOLD within a few
months, reaching a level that in real terms has never been
equaled."

Five years after the stock market peak in 1857, the
government got down to the business of creating
inflation... crashing the dollar and causing gold and
commodity prices like oil to soar. This was the first of
many times this would occur.

In short, after a major stock market peak, there are five
years until tragedy... five years until a dollar crisis -
and soaring commodity prices. It happens time and again.
Let's consider the three major stock market peaks in the
last century... 1929, the late 1960s, and 2000.

Four years after the peak of '29, FDR closed the banks and
made it illegal for private citizens to own gold. In
January 1934 - five years after the bubble - he devalued
the dollar, crushing people's savings. Commodity prices had
triple-digit rises in the mid-1930s and speculators once
again made a fortune.

It was an easy bet. FDR wanted to create inflation. It was
a crazy idea. Never before had a country attacked its own
currency for the purpose of creating inflation and rescuing
debtors.

The same thing happened five years after the market peaked
in the late 1960s. Five years later, Nixon took the dollar
off the gold standard (this time for good). Commodity
prices soared for the next ten years, with the price of
gold reaching $850 an ounce by the time it was over.

By coincidence or not, each major stock market peak of the
20th Century was followed by a crash in the U.S. dollar
five years later. People who kept their savings in dollars
saw the purchasing power of their savings shrink
substantially. Yet those who invested in commodities made
fortunes... folks like Michael Marcus.

Marcus turned $30,000 into $80 million starting in the
early 1970s. He did it not by speculating in stocks (which
would have been disastrous), but by buying commodities.
Again, it was an easy bet.

Marcus got started in 1972, dumping his whole life savings
($700!) into plywood futures. Nixon had price freezes on,
so the prices of commodities like plywood weren't legally
supposed to be able to rise. But the futures contracts
soared, and Marcus turned his $700 into $12,000 in plywood.

In 1973, Marcus turned $24,000 into $64,000, basically by
making the same bet. Marcus said when the price controls
"were lifted, there was a tremendous run up in commodities.
Just about everything went up. Prices doubled in many
markets..."

I tell these stories because the same story is unfolding
once again. We had another major stock market peak in late
1999/early 2000 (depending on which index you use). And the
"five years until tragedy" rule is striking again...

There is no gold standard for the government to adjust
today (as was done in 1934, when FDR revalued gold from
$20.67 to $35 an ounce), or to go off of the gold standard
as Nixon did in 1971, crushing the value of the dollar. But
the government today has clearly stated its intent to
create inflation (Fed governor Ben Bernanke has offered to
drop dollar bills from helicopters if necessary.) Just as
in 1862, and in 1933, it has been explicitly spelled out
for us.

And things are reacting as they should. The U.S. dollar is
in freefall. It has hit consecutive all-time lows against
the euro for the last week. And commodity prices are taking
off after taking a breather for the decades of the 1980s
and the 1990s.

This trend will inevitably continue for a few reasons. Just
like in 1862, when the nation had a new war to pay for and
the government printed money, the equivalent of the same
will happen today. Additionally, our government is heavily
indebted (the largest figure of government liabilities I've
seen is $44 trillion, roughly $440,000 per household in
America). And it is much easier to print money to pay off
your debts than to actually earn it through working.
Devaluing our dollar is simply the easiest way out... and as
the dollar falls, the price in dollars of"real" things -
like a barrel of oil or an ounce of silver - rises.

The message is clear... To save the value of their dollars
right now, the smart money is looking to gain exposure to
commodities.


Regards,

Steve Sjuggerud,
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. Do you know anyone who's opened a sugar plantation in
the last 20 years? How about a lead mine? I don't know
anyone either. Yet the world is growing. And it needs raw
materials.

Consider the case of silver. Silver has been trading around
five bucks for the last five years (give or take 50 cents).
It hasn't gone wild yet. Meanwhile, silver stocks have
soared. Pan American Silver (PAAS) for instance is up four-
fold since early 2001. This stock is now trading at a
forward P/E ratio of over 70, at a price-to-sales ratio of
15, and a price-to-book ratio of 5. And silver has hardly
moved yet! I'd rather own the silver than the stock...