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Michael Belkin

http://www.thestreet.com/pf/funds/supermodels/10121439.html

Exerpts:

Most independent researchers build careers as all-bull or all-bear, but not this guy. Operating out of a home office on Bainbridge Island in the Puget Sound near Seattle, Belkin writes a $36,000-per-year weekly report on equities, bonds and commodities for leading managers of mutual funds, pension funds and hedge funds worldwide. The report rises above the straitjacket of specialization to treat the global landscape holistically as an interlocking economic, political and social system.

Two weeks ago, Belkin abandoned his yearlong (and initially very lonely) bullish posture and put on the fur. He expects the broad market indices to sink significantly through the end of the year, led by cyclical industrial stocks, and does not see much of a recovery on the horizon for 2004.

The way Belkin sees it, we're"at the end of a liquidity bubble." Liquidity is analyst-speak for money, particularly dollars that the Federal Reserve prints and pushes into banks in a variety of ways for a variety of economic, political and social purposes. ("When the Fed makes new money, it's like counterfeiting, only it's legal," he quips.) He learned long ago that it made sense to buy into a liquidity bubble while it's happening, but that you needed to be able to identify its final days and get out a little early.


Amigos: jetzt geht's wieder los!

Emerald.