-->wenn ja sollte man der BoJ dringend einen Tip geben. Da scheint irgendwo eine undichte Stelle zu sein:

Yen Drops Against Dollar After Yomiuri Report on Currency Sales
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The yen had its biggest drop in five weeks against the dollar in London after the Yomiuri newspaper reported Japan has sold a record monthly amount of its own currency so far in January to stem the yen's advance.

The Bank of Japan sold more than 6 trillion yen ($56 billion) as of Jan. 18, more than a quarter of its sales last year, the paper reported, without saying where it obtained the information.

``I wouldn't be surprised if this figure is close to the mark,'' said Steve Barrow, a currency strategist in London at Bear Stearns Cos. in a televised interview with Bloomberg News. ``The Bank of Japan have given every indication they can continue to do this forever; in theory can do so to an unlimited extent.''

Against the dollar, the yen slid to 107.26 at 9:47 a.m. in London from 106.63 late Friday in New York, according to EBS. The yen has climbed 10 percent versus the dollar over the past year. The euro fell against the dollar to $1.2344 from $1.2394. U.S. markets are shut today for a national holiday.

Japan is prepared to sell more yen to ensure its stability, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said in a speech he delivered at the opening session of parliament. He declined to comment later to reporters when asked about the Yomiuri report.

``Japan has been putting an absolute floor on dollar-yen,'' said Adam Cole, a senior currency strategist in London at Credit Agricole Indosuez SA. ``We'd probably be the other side of 100 if it weren't for them.'' Barrow predicts the yen will gain to 95 per dollar this year.

Finance Ministers Meet

The euro weakened on speculation European finance ministers meeting later today in Brussels will say the single currency's advance in the past 12 months risks hurting the economy. The euro fell 3.4 percent last week.

German Economics and Labor Minister Wolfgang Clement and French Finance Minister Francis Mer last week said the currency's gain should be discussed at a meeting next month of Group of Seven finance ministers. European Central Bank council member Klaus Liebscher told Financial Times Deutschland that exchange rates shouldn't be seen as ``a one-way street''.

``This change of stance will have some novelty value,'' said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange in London at Mellon Financial Corp in a televised interview with Bloomberg News. ``We've seen the highs for euro-dollar for at least the next month.''

For the first time since November, traders and investors favored the dollar against the euro, with 71 percent of the 48 strategists polled Friday from Tokyo to New York advising buying or holding the U.S. currency. Sixty-five percent advised buying or holding the dollar versus the yen.

`Smoothing the Move'

Japanese authorities are trying to prevent the yen's appreciation from eroding demand for products sold by Japanese companies abroad. Exports and capital spending accounted for all of Japan's 0.3 percent growth in the third quarter.

The world's second-largest economy is expanding after three recessions in 12 years. Foreign investors have been net buyers of Japanese stocks for 34 of the past 38 weeks, according to the Ministry of Finance. Japan's economy will grow 1.8 percent in the 12 months that started April 1, the third year of expansion, the Cabinet Office said in its annual economic forecast.

``Japanese stocks are still a favorite of global investors, and that's going to continue to help the yen,'' said Mike Newton, currency strategist in Hong Kong at HSBC Holdings Plc. ``At the same time, the BOJ is going to continue to be there, smoothing the move.''

The European Central Bank hasn't bought or sold its currency to affect exchange rates since 2000, when it purchased euros. The euro gained by a fifth against the dollar last year, almost twice the yen's advance in the same period.

Mundell's Forecast

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet last week said ``brutal swings'' in the euro are unwelcome, comments echoed by ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing. ECB council members Ernst Welteke and Lucas Papademos said Thursday the comments had the desired effect, after the euro declined from a record high of $1.2899.

``There is a change of opinion at the ECB, from benign neglect of exchange rates to the view that exchange rates are too important to be left to the vicissitudes of systemic speculation,'' said Robert Mundell, a professor at Columbia University in New York and 1999 winner of the Nobel Prize for economics.

Mundell, who made the comments in an e-mail to Bloomberg News, predicted the euro may peak by ``early spring'' before weakening to as low as $1.05 in coming months.

Last Updated: January 19, 2004 04:56 EST Bloomberg

-->>Lieber Jürgen,
>Du schreibst:
>Na bitte, du sagst es selber. Wo soll ohne Nachfrage und ohne Wachstum (Hyper-)Inflation herkommen?
>Wir haben Hyperinflation (explodierende Geldmengen)! nur die Güterpreise steigen noch nicht. Vielleicht explodieren tatsächlich erst nochmal die Aktien- und Immo- Preise, bevor auch die Güterpreise explodieren.
>Aber die Entscheidung für die Hyperinflation ist gefallen - denke ich mal.
>Gruß
>R

Hallo Reinhard

Da bin ich entschieden anderer Meinung. Bei der momentanen Ueberschuldung aller Wirtschaftsteilnehmer sehe ich keinen Grund, warum nicht lebensnotwendige Güter in der Zukunft im Preis noch steigen sollen. Alles andere ja, hier aber nicht. Sehen wir uns nun die Schwergewichte in den Aktienindizes an wie Nokia, Daimler usw so handelt es sich hauptsächlich um Konzerne, welche nicht lebensnotwendige Güter herstellen. Darum zu erst der Crash bei selbstverständlich steigenden Steuern und Arbeitslosenzahlen.

Gruss chiron

-->>Lieber Jürgen,
>Du schreibst:
>Na bitte, du sagst es selber. Wo soll ohne Nachfrage und ohne Wachstum (Hyper-)Inflation herkommen?
.
>Wir haben Hyperinflation (explodierende Geldmengen)!
.
Du scheinst nicht zu wissen (oder ignorierst), wie die"Geldmenge" gemessen wird. Nachhilfe gibts hier: http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/245239.htm