-->Greenspan: China could overheat

Value of yuan could rise if dollar purchases slowed

By Corbett B. Daly, CBS Marketwatch

Last Update: 12:33 PM ET March 2, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- China could be forced to limit its dollar purchases to avoid excessive economic growth, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Tuesday.

"China's central bank purchases of dollars, unless offset, threaten an excess of so-called high-powered money expansion and a consequent overheating of the Chinese economy," Greenspan said in prepared remarks to the Economic Club of New York.

And if the Chinese did limit their purchases of the greenback, the value of the Chinese renminbi, also known as the yuan, could rise in the short-term.

"Lesser dollar purchases presumably would allow the renminbi, at least temporarily, to appreciate against the dollar," Greenspan said.

China has fixed its currency at roughly 8.3 yuan to the dollar since 1994, and the issue is a politically sensitive one for politicians in Washington during a presidential election year.

Democrats and Republicans from key electoral college states have pushed the administration to talk tough to the Chinese.

American manufacturers complain that the fixed Chinese exchange rate provides an unfair cost advantage to China's exports and is therefore costing thousands of U.S. jobs.

The U.S. manufacturing sector has shed 2.8 million jobs over the last three years.

Last month, the Bush administration sent six economic officials to Beijing for the first of several meetings aimed at providing technical assistance to China that could eventually allow China to float its currency.



Corbett B. Daly covers the White House and the Treasury Department for CBS MarketWatch in Washington.

-->Stichwortartig:

Wird Dollar nicht hochgekauft, dann chinesische ZB Bilanzprobleme wegen Eigenkapitalschwund.

Kommt Eigenkapitalschwund, weil $ sinkt, dann muß Bilanzposten Gold steigen und chinesische ZB noch mehr Gold kaufen, Gold rein, Dollar raus!

Dollar raus aus der ZB, bedeutet, Zinsen hoch am Anleihenmarkt, Schluß mit lustig an der Börse.

Zinsen hoch und M3/MZM nach unten.

Häuslebauern geht's an den Kragen und Firmen müssen sich auch umsehen, wo sie ihr Eigenkapital lassen, sofern sie rechtzeitig abgesprungen sind.

Ist mir schleierhaft, was Greenspan will. Sollte die chinesische ZB ihre Währung vom Dollar entkoppeln, dann bedeutet das doch nichts gutes für den Dollar, es sei denn, es wird ein ganz anderer Joker gezogen. Aber wie soll der aussehen?

Ein ratloser Theo