-->TEHRAN, Nov. 7, (Mehr News Agency) - Many observers predict that supply of oil would continue to exceed demand in the coming years and, consequently, if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outlasts its rival, it can play a vital role in the future of the global energy market

Nevertheless, the basic question is: will the really challenging upshot of the contemporary situation of the oil production help OPEC to persist with its current wild ride on energy markets?

Although some experts say that newly discovered oil and gas fields, new exploitations, increase in oil recovery, and high technology in oil industry will help OPEC member states to stand on the current supply, but some others seriously doubt it.

Opponents stress that many official statistics released by state-run or international organizations cannot be relied on due to lack of technical information and enough research. In addition, the high amount of oil reserves should not be overestimated. "In this way, the cartel's member would face an air of gloom hovering over their fragile, depend-on oil economy a few years later," manager of the research department for Iran's Institution of International Study on the Energy, Mohammad Mazra'ti said.

Technical facts do not support many indicated oil reserves and claimed production increase of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' member states. Mazra'ti said that International Energy Agency (funded by energy consuming countries like United States) has put the production level of Saudi Arabia n 2020 at 25 million barrel per day but no reliable fact has supported IEA's claims. [Das wäre etwa die dreifache(!) Förderung wie heute, und dies beim weltgrößten Förderer [img][/img] ]




Most of oil experts believe that none-OPEC oil producing countries have met their peak of oil production and started their decline trend while the same disaster for the OPEC member states will probably begin from 2015, he said.

According to Dow Jones, current estimates put OPEC's proven oil deposits at nearly 850 billion bbl, with a reserves-to-production ratio of more than 80 years.

Most countries, however, show a complete disregard for these figures but it seems such predictions have had a profound impact on the member's production policy.
[Das ist klar, je höher die ausgewiesenen Reserven eines OPEC-Mitgliedes sind, um so mehr darf dieses fördern]



If OPEC is intelligent enough to come through the upcoming crisis, helping to offset worries about its function and genuine fear of the years ahead, the member state's future looks bright.