-->Ein eher monetäter Aspekt von Peak Oil stellen auch die schlechteren Außenhandelsbilanzen der bisherigen Förderländer dar, wenn die Exportmenge stärker schrumpfen sollte als der Ã-lpreis in Landeswährung steigt; anhand des Beispieles UK sieht das dann so aus:



The pound is set to come under pressure as its near 30-year status as a"petrocurrency" comes to an end, a new study predicts.

The Centre for Economic and Business Research will issue its latest quarterly business forecasts today, which will show the euro rising against sterling by as much as 23 per cent over the next four years as the balance of payments deficit continues to balloon.

...Official forecasts for UK oil production show production by 2008 will be down to 56 per cent of its peak. Gas production will also be falling at the same time, albeit at a slower rate. By 2008, UK gas production will be down to 70 per cent of its peak level...Before North Sea oil production began in the late 1970s, sterling had traditionally been a weak currency. But rising production of oil and gas from the UK's offshore fields eventually led the country to enjoy a surplus in its fuel trade worth 2 per cent of GDP by 1983. The IMF estimated this was worth a 23 per cent appreciation in sterling, which duly rose in value over the period.


Gruß,
Sorrento
<ul> ~ Quelle: Independent</ul>