Hi,

wollte das Thema eigentlich nicht mehr aufgreifen, aber die Lage und die diskussion hier im Forum bringen mich daszu.

1. Israel hat ca. 400 thermonukleare Sprengköpfe (geschätzt, Quelle: s. unten). Hochinteressant! hatte den link schonmal im frama board gepostet, jetzt ist der Text 'geschwärzt', das finde ich doch sehr merkwürdig, nur noch 80 Nuklearköpfe statt der noch vor ein paar Wochen genannten 400!? Wieso? Die Quelle ist übrigens eine militärische Studie, also kein Hokupokus.

2. Das sogenannte'Third Temple Scenario', beschreibt Israels militärische Option einen Erstschlag zu führen..

Leute, ich will ja nicht den Teufel an die Wand malen, aber wenn in den nächsten jahren jemand ABC Waffen einsetzt dann ist das USrael!

Hier der Text:

' ex stratfor.com intelligence

The Third Temple Scenario

Now, we are in what might be a nightmare scenario. The deepest Israeli fear is that the Third Temple will fall and another holocaust will ensue.

More than just a fear, the Israeli military has long feared such a scenario and planned much of its doctrine around it. The scenario, which dates back more than 25 years, goes like this. First, a massive uprising occurs on the West Bank and the Gaza. Second, this rising spreads to Arab citizens of Israel. Strained to its limits by internal threats, the Israeli military may be unable to deal with an external threat.

What makes events of the past few weeks fundamentally different from anything that has happened before is the substantial violence within Israel proper, involving the country’s Arab citizenry. This did not happen during the Intifada of the 1980s; in fact it has not occurred on any similar scale since the 1948 war for independence. Distributed throughout the country, Israeli Arabs live next to major Israeli cities like Haifa while others reside in coastal villages and in Galilee. An outright uprising of Israeli Arabs would pose a nightmarish security concern like nothing in the West Bank or Gaza.

This would only be the beginning. An uprising inside Israel would make the movement of troops and supplies difficult and perhaps impossible. It would immeasurably complicate mobilization and movement toward the frontier. The difficulty of defending Israel would rise by orders of magnitude. If bordering Arab states choose to attack during such a rising, Israel could face defeat.

But here is the important caveat: The Arab states cannot defeat Israel without the help of Egypt’s military. In this crisis, Egypt has emerged at the eye of the storm, with entreaties by all parties for help. Egypt is the center of gravity of the Arab world. And luckily for Israel, Egypt has a peace treaty with Jerusalem.

But a treaty is ultimately an expression of political will and the nightmare in the Israeli military right now is that President Hosni Mubarak -- heir to Anwar Sadat, the architect of the treaty -- might fall in a popular, anti-Israeli uprising or coup. Alternatively, Mubarak, fearing such an evolution, might decide to abrogate the treaty. If that happens, the geopolitics of the region would revert to the same conditions as 1973.

Even while the Barak government attempts diplomacy, the Israeli military problem is this: If Egypt shifts course for any reason, Israeli forces would be in an impossible situation. Any attempt to move troops into the Sinai’s Mitla and Gidda passes, coupled with an insurrection in Israel, poses an insurmountable problem, from a standard conventional standpoint.

Therefore, Israeli doctrine holds that, under the nightmare scenario, Israeli forces must move first to secure the passes. Indeed, the full preemptive scenario would include a reoccupation of Sinai up to the passes along with preemptive air strikes on Arab air forces and, above all, missile capabilities.

Right now, the uprisings in Israel are not sufficient to constitute the worst-case threat. But from the Israeli point of view, waiting until things reach the worst case is unacceptable.

Es lohnt glaube ich, schon mal mögliche Kriegsscenarien durch zu spielen. Übrigens beziehe ich meine Infos ausschließlich aus US amerikanischen Quellen wie stratfor.com oder Jane´s defense weekly, also vom Verbündeten der Israelis.

Dazu ein Auszug von Jane´s defense weekly:

'As a reader of Janes Intelligence Digest, you will know of our extreme concers about developments in the Mideast - and throughout the Islamic world. Our security sources are warning:

If the Mideast peace process collapses, an Arab/Iranian coalition will attack Israel within three years;

Islamist terror groups will threaten the US with mass-destruction terrorism if it attempts to help Israel;

There is every chance this next Mideast war will go nuclear."



Viel Spaß,

black elk

<ul> ~ Israel's Nukleararsenal (bis zur Neutronenbombe)</ul>
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