>Hallo Gemeinde,
>ich würde gerne einige Meinungen hören zu der Gaspreis-Entwicklung. Entgegen des Absturzes von Rohöl, Heizöl und Benzin ist der Gaspreis rasant gestiegen und bisher nicht wesentlich zurück gekommen.
>Gerüchte über eine Gasknappheit machen die Runde, in Kalifornien ist der Spot-Preis Gas völlig aus dem Ruder gelaufen.
>(Friday, 08.12.00: Califo.: 56.54 ; Month ago: 5.97 (eine Steigerung von über 800%!!)
>North American Daily Natural Gas Prices
>Dort feuern viele Kraftwerke mit Gas. Der Strombedarf ist, unter anderem durch die stärkere Verbreitung von Computern und Peripherie-Geräten (...), um etwa 15% gestiegen (leider habe ich für diese Zahl im Moment keine Quelle). Hinzu kommt die gestiegene Nachfrage nach Gas in der Heizperiode. Folge ist eine im Vergleich zu früheren Jahren deutlich geringere Vorratshaltung in den nationalen Gasspeichern.
>Wie ernst ist die Lage? Stromrationierung in Kalifornien, und das im mächtigsten Land der Erde, das wäre mal was!
>Übrigens, viele Kraftwerke können ihre Feuerung von Gas auf Ã-l umstellen, der Preisrutsch zumindest bei Heizöl könnte somit von kurzer Dauer sein.
>Grüsse,
>Eis.
Die Mail bekam ich neulich von"Outstanding Investments"
Natural gas prices have skyrocketed into record territory
this week - soaring by more than 75% in the past month
alone. The rise continued on Wednesday when the U.S.
Energy Information Administration said residential
consumers can expect to pay 50% more this year to heat
their homes. On that news, natural gas futures soared past
recent record levels to an all-time high of $8.80/Btu.
Compare that to what natural gas was trading at in January
of this year - $2.17/Btu. This is an ongoing story that is
certain to bring in big investment profits to stockholders
of natural gas companies.
More on this in a moment, but first I must apologize for
not reaching you each day this week. I came down with a
serious asthma attack that was triggered by a chest
infection. Two days in the hospital cleared me right up,
though, and I'm back on the job.
Now let's get back to natural gas. Natural gas prices
almost always spike higher when there's a cold snap - the
kind currently gripping most of North America. Weather
watchers are calling it a"polar pig" coming down from the
Arctic. Whatever you call it, it's a typical weather
pattern that has been taking place over the past five or
six years. And it's a weather pattern that is causing
heavy drawdown on natural gas inventories.
And because of that, the Globe & Mail concludes that prices
are likely to remain high for at least the next few years.
"Not as high as they are now, perhaps, but still far higher
than in previous years - prices are more than three times
as high as they were a year ago," writes the Globe.
The Globe goes on to suggest that prices might retract to
the point where they are only twice as high as they have
been historically, but are unlikely to go much lower.
What makes the Globe think it can predict natural gas
prices? Because of the way natural gas prices are
determined. Unlike the crude oil business, finding reasons
behind the natural gas price rise doesn't involve the
analysis of the complicated inner workings of a secretive
cartel such as OPEC in a war-torn region. The current
prices for natural gas are almost purely a function of that
age-old one-two punch of supply and demand.
Canadians are beginning to see the demand for natural gas
as a windfall. Why? Because U.S. demand for gas continues
to climb, leaving Canada the only obvious nation to fulfill
demand. Up until just recently, Canadian producers haven't
been producing as much as they could have, in part because
of lower prices for crude oil in 1998 and 1999. That has
natural gas supplies extremely tight.
Canadian natural gas producers will help offset this
tightness and crank up production in order to meet soaring
U.S. demand. And best of all, they now have the
wherewithal to do it with. The last couple of years have
seen the completion of the Alliance pipeline. It was
started by a group of producers who were tired of waiting
for Nova Corp. and TransCanada PipeLines to provide more
routes to the United States. After more than four years of
planning, the $4.7 billion pipeline finally opened for
business last month - but there still isn't enough natural
gas being produced to fill the need.
But there will be sometime soon. When that happens,
natural gas pumps will be going full bore across the
Western Plains of Canada, an exercise that will put profits
into the hands of independent and mid-sized natural gas
companies on our list. Companies like Key West (KWE: TSE),
Vermilion (VRM: TSE) and Alberta Energy Company (AEC: TSE),
to name just a few. Oh, and one more thing, these stocks
have all been climbing, riding the wave of higher natural
gas prices.
Finally, Some Good News on Gold
The Midas metal has begun to stir. In the wake of stock
market anxiety, political stalemate and a promise by Alan
Greenspan to lower interest rates, the greenback has lost
some of its prominence. Gold has broken through an
important resistance of $271 an ounce.
Some people love labels. And it gets hard to get around
that. Fair enough. But when it comes down to labeling the
economy, you are faced with words like deflation and
inflation. What I think we're likely to see instead is a
little bit of stagflation. That's a situation where the
economy is still growing; it is just now growing as fast as
the money supply is. The result is you have to work longer
and harder to afford the things that once came easily to
you.
Back to gold. If it can hold this beachhead over $277, and
I expect it will, then there will be tremendous moneymaking
opportunities in gold stocks, particularly penny gold
stocks.
As a penny gold stockowner, it is important to remember
that these companies are invariably looking for suitors.
Rather than looking on ore tonnage, production or profits,
these companies are measured by their properties, their
management and their geologists. The companies with all
the right ducks sell for a hefty profit for stockholders of
those companies.
Given the rebound in gold, I am changing Manhattan Minerals
(MAN: TSE) and Francisco Gold (FGX: CDNX) from holds and
making them again into buys.
Still Waiting for That Call
As I was lying in the hospital, all I had time to do was
sit back and watch the deluge of news reports on the U.S.
presidential election. More court cases. More speeches and
protests. No new president! Won't this ever be decided?
The one good thing... maybe the only good thing... about
all this election shenanigans is that the closer we get to
Bush as the new president, the more active some of our
picks are on Wall Street, especially those stocks that
traders assume will get preferential treatment under a
Republican administration.
I'm talking about one of our"non-traditional" real asset
stocks, RJR Reynolds (RJR: NYSE). That one continues to
climb; it's up 54% from where be bought in.
Making Some Cuts
Dynegy Inc. (DYN: NYSE) announced that it's cutting its
production of natural gas liquids by either shutting plants
down or cutting operating rates because of high feedstock
natural gas prices.
Even with this news, we're seeing the company's share price
on the rise, closing today at $49.56. We're in the midst
of winter, and energy companies, especially those of
Dynegy's caliber, are reaping the profits of electricity
and natural gas shortages.
An Answer to Your Questions
We've received some inquiries regarding the recent sudden
decline of Enron's share price. There's no reason for
concern... it's just a fluctuation. In fact, we're
already seeing a rebound in the stock, with it closing
today at over $73 (after falling to $64.75).
One more thing. Enron (ENE: NYSE) is more than just an
electric company. It's the nation's largest trader and
marketer of natural gas and electric power. Long
considered an energy company, Enron is a powerhouse indeed,
with $40 billion in revenues in 1999 and $60 billion for
the first nine months of 2000, largely from growth in the
gas and power businesses. Now Enron wants to apply its
experience and expertise from energy to diverse markets
around the globe.
Bottom line, with the amount of volatility in the markets
right now, I don't think there is any fundamental problems
with Enron.
On the downside for the company, though, the western Indian
state of Maharashtra is holding internal discussions on
whether to review the second phase of U.S. energy giant
Enron Corp.'s Dabhol power project. We'll let you know how
any decision on the project will affect the company's share
price.
A Side Note
We could be looking at a reassessment of California rate
caps as a result of the latest meltdown. Caps are
artificial and meaningless in a short market where demand
elasticity to price does not exist. On the flip side, this
is the first time the outside hubs have traded above the
caps.
Yours for Outstanding Investments,
John Myers
Ahoi!
Jan
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