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-->Guten Morgen!

Vielleicht ist Peak Oil auch so ein Internet Gerücht. Erscheint aber allen, die eine heile, autofreie Welt herbeisehnen, sehr glaubhaft.


<ul> ~ http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-12/23/content_402814.htm</ul>

-->>Hallo,
>habe gerade folgendes Fundstück entdeckt, ich stelle es mal zur Diskussion hier rein:
>
>"I fear we're going to be at war for decades, not years," Woolsey said."It will last a long time and it will have a major ideological component. Ultimately we will win it but one major component of that war is oil."
>Woolsey, who drives a hybrid-electric Toyota Prius and has his own solar PV system on his home...
>http://renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=19841
>Also bestätigt der Ex-CIA-Chef, dass die USA einen langen Krieg ums Ã-l zu führen gewillt sind bzw. diesen bereits führen und die Ideologie nur das Deckmäntelchen dafür ist- oder fällt einem bei Personen wie Rumsfeld, Cheney etc. noch eine andere"Ideologie" als Macht und Geld ein
>
>Ebenfalls interessant in dem Zusammenhang sind die folgenden, aktuellen Zitate die zeigen wie Peak Oil immer mehr ins öffentliche Bewußtsein sickert:
>
>The signs are mounting that a physical scarcity of mineral oil must be expected much sooner than anticipated.... In all probability a battle will break out over shares in the globally diminishing [oil and gas] reserves, particularly of oil..... the really interesting date is not the time at which the use of reserves comes to an end, but the time of maximum production. When output starts to decline from this peak, with demand remaining constant or even continuing to rise, strong reactions in prices and economic upheaval are possible..... The end-of-fossil-hydrocarbons scenario is not therefore a doom-and-gloom picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the-world prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming years and decades that must be taken seriously. Forward-looking politicians, company chiefs and economists should prepare for this in good time, to effect the necessary transitions as smoothly as possible.... Going forward, the supply situation will become increasingly critical in the markets for mineral oil and, later, natural gas. At the latest when demand outstrips reserves, energy prices will climb significantly."
>Energy Prospects After The Petroleum Age
>Deutsche Bank Research, 2 December 2004
>"World oil production is likely to peak in the next decade, much earlier than many international forecasts, a senior BP executive has told The Business. BP exploration consultant Francis Harper said he estimated the world's total original usable oil resources - the amount of oil before drilling began - at about 2.4 trillion barrels of oil. This is considerably less than the 3 trillion assumed by bullish commentators such as the US government's Geological Survey. This points to oil production peaking between 2010 and 2020. He added that oil companies' public positions on the issue masked debate within them. 'There are people in BP who happen to be economists and so happen to think there's no problem, and there are people in BP who are geologists who are saying it's getting hard to find.'..... Seth Kleinman at PFC Energy said oil companies had held back from such statements. 'There's a certain degree of hesitancy for oil companies to go on the record and say, 'we are doing well with oil prices where they are now, but 10 years down the road things actually look pretty dire'."
>Oil supply to peak sooner than we think, says BP scientist
>The Business, 7 November 2004
>"10 years down the road things actually look pretty dire."
>PFC Energy, November 2004
>"Over the last 20 years, the size of oil discoveries has fallen off dramatically. We are finding more fields than in the '60s and '70s, but they're much smaller. We're producing three barrels of oil for every one barrel of oil that we find. The U.S. government should consider the possibilities raised by the peak-oil people. We have to be prepared to deal with all plausible situations, and it has to be reflected in policy. People don't want to face this reality. Once you accept it as a possibility -- not even as a certainty, but just as one of many possible scenarios -- then you have to make all sorts of changes (in the way you live), because it would not make sense not to."
>Michael Rodgers, PFC Energy
>CNN, 3 November 2004
>"The supplies side is limited. We are reaching the limits of the planet very soon. We can't produce much more oil than we are producing today..... I am talking about two to three years from now.... It is always a supply problem. It is never a demand problem. The oil fields cannot produce enough oil anymore..... If what I predict is going to happen in 2006 or 2007 then you will have a constant oil shock after that. So everything is going to change..... [When this oil crisis happens] You will cut demand first but then the supply is going to go down as well. In the previous ones it was not like that. You would cut demand and supply would go up and you would recalibrate the whole system...... This time you will not be able to recalibrate. What I'm saying is that you don't have any more spare capacity neither in the Middle East, nor in OPEC, nor anywhere else. That's why a problem like Yukos, which is a small problem after all, becomes such a big problem today."
>Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, Vice President of the National Iranian Oil Company
>Oil demand will soon outstrip supply: industry planner
>ABC (Australia), 9 August 2004
>
>gruss,
>Sorrento