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Following are excerpts from last week's Market Tells commentaries. Discover
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Sunday, 9/18..."The VIX in particular drew an interesting chart formation
as it posted an unfilled downside gap and closed under its lower bollinger
band. Looking back at similar times when the VIX gapped below its lower
band, the S&P has had a definitive tendency to settle at a lower level 2-4
trading days later as volatility rebounds."

Thursday, 9/15..."There have been a total of eighteen instances since 1998
in which Nasdaq futures open interest initially jumped 10% or more. If it
occurred on an up day for the Nasdaq, it's considered a short-term bullish
sign and calls for a higher Nasdaq 3-5 trading days later. If it occurred on
a down day, as was the case Wednesday, it's considered a short-term bearish
sign and calls for a lower Nasdaq 3-5 trading days later. In this case, that
indicates we'll see the Nasdaq100 cash (NDX) close below 1589 in the
Monday-Wednesday period of next week, suggesting a rally on Friday could be
a short-term selling opportunity."

Wednesday, 9/14..."If the market does trade higher this Friday, it would
have negative implications for Monday of next week. The reasoning is that in
recent years, a higher S&P close on 'triple witching Friday' has been
followed by a sideways-to-down session in each of the past thirteen
occurrences since 1999..."

Tuesday, 9/13..."The number of new 52-week lows on the NYSE jumped to 36
Tuesday, a solid increase from Monday's 21 reading. Keep an eye on the
end-of-August peak at 47. If the number of new lows exceeds 47 in the coming
days, it would be a negative divergence given that the S&P itself isn't
close to its August lows. Such a development would bolster the notion of
post-expiration weakness." [sidenote: this occurred Friday]

Monday, 9/12..."Also suggesting we'll see some weakness before a rally
takes hold was today's unusually low volume in the Nasdaq100 tracking stock
(QQQQ). Only 51.7 million shares traded hands Monday, the lowest QQQQ volume
in over two months. That signals an absence of institutional participation,
which historically has led to short-term weakness in the QQQQ. Of the past
twenty times this pattern has occurred, the QQQQ has posted a lower close
within four sessions in every case but two..."

Sunday, 9/11..."For the short-term, Friday's big gains put the XAU in
technically overbought territory, indicating we'll most likely see a close
below Friday's settlement within the next few sessions. Note that the 5-day
RSI for the XAU settled above the 85 level, historically a good sign that a
short-term top is nearby. Since 1996, we've seen the XAU 5-day RSI hit such
extreme overbought territory a total of 27 times. In every case, the XAU
closed at a subsequently lower level within three sessions."


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