-->Hallo,

inzwischen herrscht unter fast alle Experten Einigkeit, dass das Rattern der US-Notenpresse auf Hochtouren in den USA zu Inflation und fallendem USD führen muss, weil eine höhere USD-Menge einem etwa gleich hohen Angebot an Sachwerten gegenübersteht.

Aber wenn sich alle einig sind, werde ich vorsichtig und rechne ggf. mit einer anderen Entwicklung. Hier ein alternatives (Deflations-)Szenario:

Gold up, Dollar down? Beware! Gold up and Dollar up May Be the Trend
The assumption by most people in the financial industry is that a higher gold price depends on a lower dollar, and they think that gold is rising because of inflationary pressures. Actually, gold does well during inflationary and deflationary environments, while non-monetary commodities perform very poorly in a deflationary environment.
As I said before, the ruling Anglo-American elite would rather see America enter another Great Depression than to relinquish its place as a world power. And so, I believe the die may be cast for the beginning of the Kondratieff winter. Time will tell, but I think Bob Hoye's comments this week relating to the dollar are well worth noting. Bob makes a point that is overlooked by almost everyone with the exception of Richard Russell from time to time-that the dollar could be the strongest currency against most if not all other currencies, even as the price of gold rises vis-à-vis all currencies. Do you wonder how that could be?
As Bob frequently points out, the senior currency through history has been the strongest during a deflationary collapse because it is the one with the most debt. Debt represents a short position against a currency. When you borrow to buy a car or a house, you are, whether your realize it or not, taking out a short position against the dollar. What happens when the economy implodes or contracts and you either lose your job or fear you will as a result? What you will do is start to sell everything you don't need, for dollars. What happens what that takes place, en masse? You start to see the dollar rise, vis-à-vis all manner of items being dumped on the market. That is what will happen in America when Ian Gordon's Kondratieff winter bites hard. It is inconceivable to all but the oldest Americans because the rest of us have not witnessed that happening in America in any major way since the 1930s. But I believe it will happen again, which is why I think gold and paper currency-preferably under the mattress and not in shaky banking institutions guaranteed by a government that is itself increasingly shaky and in fact already bankrupt-are where you are going to want to have a major part of your money when this crisis hits.
In any event, regarding the dollar short thesis and why the dollar could actually get stronger much to the surprise of most investors, here is what Bob Hoye had to say in this week's Pivotal Events:
"As we like to contemplate, the very worst thing that could happen to policymakers would be a firming dollar.
"This is based upon the doctrinaire practice of depreciation, which has been the universal remedy for any official concern. So if depreciation is good, appreciation is bad-particularly if the world is massively short dollars and long highly inflated asset prices.
"The problem, as any speculator knows, is that the debt stays when prices suddenly fail. Typically, this then urgently compels offside players to sell assets to cover debt that suddenly makes cash (dollars) more important than formerly hot stories.
"On the dollar relative to currencies, our view is that the majority of the global debt issued (there has been a debt bubble) has been underwritten in New York and payable in dollars.
[…]
But the idea that the dollar could actually get stronger when people think policy makers can print unlimited quantities of this increasingly worthless paper is counterintuitive and thus hard for most people to fathom. The reason they don't understand is because they fail to realize that"debt is the raw material from which fiat money is created and as such, printing more of this debt money results in a larger and larger dollar short position. And so when the margin clerk calls for repayment of debt, everyone is forced to stampede out of the narrow exits at the same time to sell what ever they can to raise cash."
So as you can see, despite my flirtation with inflation hedges and despite the fact that those investments have been very kind to our Model Portfolio this year, I remain a deflationist and worry about when we might want to exit from those investments. Ultimately, deflation will win. And I wonder also, based on Bob Hoye's work as well as more signs in my own Inflation/Deflation indicator (which was down again this week), whether we may be nearing a tipping point from inflation to deflation. Indeed, Bob noted that a steepening of the yield curve this past week could be hinting that a start of a cyclical bear market in base metals could be underway.

Schönes Wochenende
w


<ul> ~ http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor091805.html</ul>

-->>>>.
>>Nee, nee erstmal auf 1,16 fallen!:-)
>------------------------------------------------
>Kann sein, wenn die FED die Zinsen laufend weiter erhöht und die EZB nicht mitzieht. Trotzdem ist es nur eine Frage der Zeit wann der USD zum Euro auf 1,45 oder mehr fällt. Ich kannte diese hier veröffentlichte Meinung nicht, schließe mich aber an.
>Gr.
>th.

Nein. Der Dollar steigt an bis zur Parität mit dem EURO. Vielleicht sogar noch weiter. Alles wie gehabt: Zuerst Zinsen rauf bis 5%, dann kauft alle Welt US-Anleihen. Die Zauberer der FED haben bis jetzt noch immer gewonnen. Da können die Schulden machen und Dollar drucken soviel sie wollen; die steigen immer als Sieger aus...