-->Hi,

immerhin in einem Editorial steht dies (quotable, Unterstreichungen von mir):

The Interest Must Be Paid

"Recent stock market turmoil has been a plus for United States Treasury securities. Over the last couple of weeks, investor demand for safety has generally pushed up the price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond, making it cheaper for the government to borrow. But there is still plenty of reason to worry about the United States' borrowing binge.

By definition, federal borrowing eventually results in a transfer of income from American taxpayers, whose taxes go to pay the interest on the debt, to the investors who hold the Treasury bonds.

[Endlich kömmt's, wer Letztschuldner ist; von wegen US-Gov...]

As long as the bonds are owned by Americans, the transfer is simply from one group of citizens to another. Bond holders may get richer, while taxpayers who don't own bonds get poorer, which could add to troubling disparities in personal wealth. But shuffling the income between the two groups doesn't reduce America's overall wealth.

Today, however, 43 percent of the United States' publicly held debt of $4.8 trillion is held abroad, mainly by central banks in Japan, China and Britain and by offshore hedge funds. That's up from a 30 percent share in 2001, an extraordinary increase. Indeed, during the Bush years, 73 percent of new government borrowing has been from abroad.

Paying the interest on the foreign-owned portion of the debt will be a burden on future Americans, draining their wallets and siphoning off the nation's wealth.

Reliance on foreign lenders poses current dangers, as well. A shift in investor sentiment, away from dollar-based investments and into other countries' assets, could be very destabilizing, forcing a drop in the dollar, higher interest rates and higher prices. Such shifts can be sudden, as in the Asian financial crisis in 1998. [!]

Of course, no one knows the future. But we can size up our present reality: America is living beyond its means, and foreigners are increasingly supporting the excess — in exchange for a government guarantee that a chunk of America's future collective income will benefit them, not the Americans who earn it."

Was, wenn die USA ihre policy of benign neglect fortsetzen? Dann könnte eine USD-Krise aufscheinen (Zinsen rauf, wealth runter, usw.) und welche Americans können in einer US-internen Krise überhaupt noch so viel an"earnings" einfahren, dass sich daraus (i.e. den entsprechenden Steuereinnahmen) noch so etwas wie ein Staats-Budget konstruieren ließe?

Sicher scheint nur eins: Die"Abwicklung" (egal, ob über den"Markt", über USD-Repudiation, über eine special debt tax, usw.) wird eine höchst launige Geschichte werden, zumal der Schuldner (noch) sein Militär bezahlen kann.

Vorsichtiger Tip: Die nächste Große Revolution wird wohl drüben laufen; große Revolutionen gehen nie gegen bekannte strongmen, sondern gegen schwächelnde Figuren und Machtsysteme. Was auch erklären mag, dass die USA sich so tüchtig und mit allen Tricks und Täuschungen dem Strongfortismus verschreiben.

Ab Herbst wird Bush eine lame duck sein (obendrein ohne Mehrheiten in den Kammern) und dann werden wir mehr sehen. Viel mehr.

Gruß!