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Stock Market Crash, Updated June 7, 2000

A developing essay examining the theory that a stock market crash of 1929 proportions is approaching, to be followed by a bear market that will match the 1990s bull market for strength and longevity in every respect

Why don't they stop the crash?
The answer is, that (based on readings of other crashes in history, and historical accounts such as"The Madness of Crowds"), vested interests quite probably are attempting to prevent crashes. But in the end, they are likely to fail, which means the taxpayer is called upon to subsidise the stock market gamblers.

As a result, huge amounts of money go to support economic activities that ought not to receive it- companies with bad business plans (Boo.com being a salutary example), companies that are a total waste of human effort (you may decide for yourself), and of course, enterprises supported by corruption and criminal activities. In the end, the propping up of markets weakens nations and by delaying natural pull-backs in the business cycle, makes the pain much worse when it does eventually arrive.

Sun Tzu was a Chinese military leader and philosopher whos 7000 word work"The Art of War" was written around 500 B.C., and is still renowned as a master work on strategy for winning- in business as well as war. Here are some of his words:
"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him. If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."
Let me try to restate that to see what we might be up against in terms of market manipulations:
The equity markets may seem terminally weak, and"this time", heading for a fall with no help available- we may believe this as bears, but suddenly a short-crushing rally appears"out of the blue"
Equities rise for no apparent reason- normally reliable tell-tale signs absent.
Equities fall, and it looks like this is finally IT... but stocks miraculously recover, causing shorts to panic.
Speeches may be made, and reports released (on the subject of inflation, for example) that seem to contradict each other
Direct attacks- such as attempts to reveal corruption and precarious investments- seem to fall on deaf ears, while the corruption is not found at the place pointed to.
Odd (and irritating) things happen; rules change; markets close (e.g. TOCOM, see below), discussions are disrupted in all kinds of ways, including encouragement of factions.
Web sites become mysteriously unavailable at critical times
Normally reliable data sources produce"computer errors" and delays
Data sources suddenly withdraw certain items of data, that have come to be relied upon
Bulls and bears mysteriously switch places
High-profile bears appear, make conspicuous predictions of doom, and are then roundly discredited by market events
Now, doesn't that make you think?....

Sollte man mehrmals lesen...
schönen Abend noch!!

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