>
fulminaten Goldanstieg an 800 vorhergesagt!!!
Hallo,
>leider viel in Englisch vom Crystallboard, message2923, woher sonst, aber die Meinung eines GESTANDENEN MARKTTECHNIKERS - happy happy - grusel grusel
>Oder ist dies ein Super-Markttechniker ohne jedes Realitätsbewußtsein?
>Gruß/OOO
>
>[ Read Replies ] [ Post a Reply ] [ Crystal Ball ]
>From: Nelson Palmer
>Date Posted: January 12, 2001 at 10:07:09
>Subject: another side of coin
>Reference: What's your favorite accumulation indicator?
>
>Thought you might like this Interview.
>Top Market Timer Says, NASDAQ 5000 This Year
>An InvestorLinks Exclusive Report
>From the InvestorLinks.com News Desk
>By: Peter Santini, January 11, 2001
>Like a hot knife through butter, the NASDAQ should go through 5000 this year.
>That's what Don Wolanchuk says and he's one of Market Timer Digest's Top
>Market Timers, having won 17 annual timing awards since 1989. Some of his
>greatest timing calls were widely ignored by the investment community.
>Wolanchuk forecast the bull market rally following the 1987 crash and called for
>a DJIA above 10,000. When NASDAQ traded at 1800, he forecast a NASDAQ
>5000. In 1999, at the bottom of the oil market, Wolanchuk called for $30/barrel
>oil. He was Market Timer of the Year in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1999.
>In the interview below, Wolanchuk calls for a"fast and furious" return to
>NASDAQ 5000. But, that's only the first level. He's calling for a NASDAQ
>10,000 on its way"towards 20,000." He forecasts Intel (INTC, Chart, Boards)
>reaching as high as $75/share, Microsoft (MSFT, Chart, Boards) returning to
>$112/share, AT&T (T, Chart, Boards) reaching $60/share, and Procter and
>Gamble (PG, Chart, Boards) at $118/share.
>Wolanchuk uses numerous historical comparisons in describing the current
>market conditions and helping explain why sentiment is as it is. In explaining
>why we should anticipate a major rally in the financial markets, he offers
>various technical measures, such as the VIX Index, the ARMS Index and the
>Advance/Decline lines. This may be the most important interview you will read
>this year.
>Investors and curiosity seekers may wish to visit Don Wolanchuk's website for
>additional information about his market timing techniques at
>www.wolanchuk.com
>INVESTORLINKS: How do you currently feel about the condition of the
>markets?
>WOLANCHUK: When it becomes hopeless to everybody, which it appears to
>be now… In fact a few weeks ago, with the American Association of Individual
>Investors, you saw 51 percent bears and about 30 percent bulls. That's a flight.
>And rather amazing because the DOW is basically where it was a year, year and
>a half ago. NASDAQ the same way. The market's taken a time out with the
>DOW about 10,000. The same thing happened in 1991 - went side ways, drove
>everybody crazy. It's taken a great breather. Interestingly, we get all the
>bluebirds out and you've heard the words"crash" and"bubble" and every other
>thing from these bears.
>INVESTORLINKS: The word"recession" has been mentioned more than a few
>times recently.
>WOLANCHUK: Yes. After the crash of 1987, we had a recession and the
>market went straight up. Recession, fear of the stock market, everybody moving
>into money market funds and talk of bear markets is what bottoms are made out
>of. Proof of that is in the technical picture. While this has been going on, the
>base 52-week new highs have been steadily climbing for a year now - the stocks
>making new 52-week highs. Last week, there were over six hundred. The
>weekly Advance/Decline line just keeps climbing and climbing and climbing.
>Technically, we've got a fabulous situation in the moving averages of put/call
>ratios. We've got numbers that we haven't seen in years. We've got an ARMS
>index in the moving average - the last time that I saw 130. I can't remember
>seeing a ten day ARMS at 130. Even while the DOW has been going up here,
>recently, the five-day trend has been staying above eight hundred. That's
>incredible! The DOW, where is it? It's over 1000 out of the October low. In the
>mean time, we've got everybody being chased out of the stock market. It's
>absolutely a fabulous situation.
>INVESTORLINKS: Is it fabulous enough that it's time for investors to rush
>back in?
>WOLANCHUK: They're not going to do it no matter what I say. If I tell them
>to jump in here with both feet, they're not going to listen to me - just like they
>didn't listen to me after the crash of 1987.
>INVESTORLINKS: For those that do listen to you, what should they expect?
>WOLANCHUK: Every time that we have this situation, the stocks are served
>up on silver platter. The interesting thing is the wipeout in a lot of NASDAQ
>stocks is typical of an industry that attracted a lot of people - the Internet
>business. A horde of people went in there for fast and easy money. A lot of
>these companies, of course, are not going to make it and you had the initial
>shake out. You had all these troubles with financings that turned into death
>spirals.
>INVESTORLINKS: Where do you see the NASDAQ heading?
>WOLANCHUK: When the NASDAQ was at 1800, I said it was going to 5000.
>It's a perfect correction. I haven't seen anything in the wave structure to negate
>my idea that it's going to head - the potential is that the NASDAQ is going to
>start flying up past 10,000 towards 20,000.
>INVESTORLINKS: The NASDAQ?
>WOLANCHUK: Yes, the NASDAQ."Is anybody, who was on margin and who
>got wiped out, going to go near the margin department for probably months or
>years? Of course not."
>INVESTORLINKS: From where to where?
>WOLANCHUK: Past 5000 and a clean shot through 10,000 on it's way to
>20,000.
>INVESTORLINKS: You're going on record that the NASDAQ is going to
>20,000.
>WOLANCHUK: It's going to go beyond that eventually. There's going to be a
>lot of washouts in between. This is the best washout.
>INVESTORLINKS: Do you think we're ever going to see an opportunity like
>this again?
>WOLANCHUK: Just like we never saw an opportunity when it made it's low in
>1998. Here we have a situation where everybody got notoriously bullish in the
>NASDAQ. The problem there was they were right being bullish, but they were
>wrong in the way that they executed it. That was by buying stock with
>borrowed funds on margin accounts. It wasn't anything else, but people were
>forced out of the market because of margin selling. Now look how clean this
>market is. Is anybody, who was on margin and who got wiped out, going to go
>near the margin department for probably months or years? Of course not. This
>market is very clean in that regard. So we don't have to worry about forced
>margin selling anymore. We don't have to worry too much about poor
>sentiment. After the crash of 1987 everybody thought, all through the next two
>years, that it was bear market rally. There's nobody going to be calling this a
>bull market for long time even though the weekly Advance/Decline line
>bottomed out a year ago.
>INVESTORLINKS: Do you think we're still in a bull market?
>WOLANCHUK: Absolutely. If there's nobody left to sell and everybody's
>bearish…I got the same thing in 1987. I feel a lot better about it now, because
>I'm in the minority. What's so funny is that the media said that the NASDAQ
>had its worst year in history. What they don't say is that, a year ago, the
>NASDAQ is where it is now. For the first six months it was the grandest six
>months in the history of the NASDAQ. Then, you had the worst six months and
>you ended up back where you started. That's exactly what the DOW did in
>1987. All it did was go back to where it was in 1986 and the whole process
>started all over again. It is a hump in a chart that is continuing it's up climb. In
>the meantime, these stop clock bears who yet have to get religion… Can you
>imagine some of these stop clock bears who have been calling for the end of
>Western Civilization for the last fourteen years?
>INVESTORLINKS: What about the bears?
>WOLANCHUK: This market's not going to let them off the hook. Here we are
>above 10,000 pressing 11,000. If I'd told you 15 years ago, after the crash of
>the DOW, when everybody hated it, that they would hate it just as much above
>10,000 you would have thought I was a nut. Here we are above 10,000 and
>everybody hates it. We are at a high level consolidation that's been stretching
>out for a year and a half or so in the DOW and the NASDAQ - a flawless ABC.
>What we call an ABC irregular flat correction in terms of Elliot where the
>B-Wave made the high at five thousand. Until proven other wise, anybody who
>says we're in a bear market - and at the end and we'll never see these highs
>again for years, which we've heard a lot of… You've got to remember where all
>this talk came from. It came from the people who missed the entire advance to
>begin with. They have really no credentials to be making those kinds of
>statements. In the meantime I never thought that I would be in the minority
>bullish camp once again with the DOW pressing eleven thousand. It's a rather
>fabulous situation. All these companies that have taken whacks like Intel (INTC,
>Chart, Boards), General Motors (GM, Chart, Boards). There's some of these
>DOW stocks actually are screaming new highs like the banking stocks. What
>we've had is a rotational exercise, which is typical of a high level consolidation
>in the primary market. While the secondary and most speculative market, as
>you know the NASDAQ, has gotten it's comeuppance because of the margin
>buying.
>INVESTORLINKS: Where does that leave us?
>WOLANCHUK: Now we've got a cleaned up market where nobody is going to
>go near the margin desk. We're set up for a resumption of the bull market. In
>certain sectors the bull markets been intact for quite awhile.
>INVESTORLINKS: What about the market's short-term prospects?
>WOLANCHUK: Actually, the markets have been rallying while the NASDAQ is
>re-testing its prior lows. The Wilshire Small Cap on a weekly basis has a
>great-looking chart pattern as far as I'm concerned. It's declined and held its
>150-week moving average. It's a mile out of its hole made in 1998. It's a classic
>little consolidation. But, if you look at the NASDAQ it's only declined in three
>waves off the top. If you're an Elliot Wave Analyst and you're bearish, you've
>got to say to yourself,"If that's only three waves, and that's the second wave
>pull back, a third wave blast of historic proportion can absolutely be born out of
>that." Because of that potential, I'm certainly not going to miss it, if that's going
>to happen. The wave structure of the NASDAQ certainly allows for that. Here
>we are with a VIX Index (CBOE Market Volatility Index) still above 30 percent.
>It's been hovering above 30 percent since September. It's taken a stab to 37
>percent during that time frame. This is a long period of high VIX readings
>without any solid detraction in a primary market. This is bullish. A market that
>looks ugly and doesn't go down is a market that you want to own.
>INVESTORLINKS: What are your thoughts on the recovering telecom sector?
>WOLANCHUK: There's no doubt about it, but the telecom sector has gotten
>awfully oversold, even more oversold than the NASDAQ. A lot of these wire
>houses couldn't stand it so I think they put out a big buy on AT&T (T, Chart,
>Boards). Here's a stock that technically appears like it's going to go all the way
>back to $60/share because of the gap situation. When a futures contract, or a
>stock, declines or advances leaving lots of gaps in the chart, all of those gaps
>eventually get filled. Intel (INTC, Chart, Boards) in my view is a prime
>candidate for that. INTC left all these huge gaps all the way down and Intel has
>got $75/share written all over it because of these gaps. The same thing with
>Microsoft (MSFT, Chart, Boards). I'm seeing Microsoft going back to$112,
>$115 or higher. It's the gap rule. The only reason that the NASDAQ declined in
>the first place was to fill all the gaps it left, when it initially thrust out of the hole
>over a year ago. There were three large gaps. They went down and filled them
>all. We had the S&P 500 futures bottom over a week ago at 1288. The next day
>it opened on a huge gap.
>INVESTORLINKS: How soon should we expect these strong moves?
>WOLANCHUK: We've been through some speedy moves here. We've had a
>bull market and a bear market - people going from extraordinarily bullish to
>extraordinarily bearish, all within a number of months. These things are moving
>really fast. Look at the volatility we've seen in the last number of weeks. We
>went through this 1991. While this is going on, sentiment is improving. It's just
>like 1991 all over again. It went up and down, drove everybody crazy for over a
>year. Not much has changed.
>INVESTORLINKS: Are you pretty much saying that we should expect more
>volatility.
>WOLANCHUK: I think we've had the bulk of it. My only concern is the cycles.
>We've got a four-year cycle due in 2002.
>INVESTORLINKS: What does that mean?
>"What everybody is anticipating, in my view, could prove to be something
>similar to what we saw in 1987: The market going crazy."
>WOLANCHUK: That means it's going to be marked by something. Let me give
>you an example. We had a four-year cycle low due in 1986. Everybody
>prepared themselves for it in early 1986 as measured by the daily
>Advance/Decline line. It topped out and started declining, declining, declining as
>everybody bailed out in anticipation of a four year cycle that was due in 1986.
>In September 1986, we got some sort of hammering job, but in December of
>1986, the daily A/D line was making twelve-month lows while the DOW was
>virtually at historic highs. That got everybody really bearish. Then, the market
>exploded to the August 1987 peak. There were all kinds of technical problems
>there. The 1986 four-year cycle low basically was met in 1987. The next four
>year cycle low if you count forward four years was 1990. Remember how ugly
>that was? Then, four years later was 1994. Remember how ugly that was? Four
>years later was 1998. So here we are, four years later from 1998, we have
>2002. Somewhere between here and there, it appears that everybody is
>preparing for this four-year cycle, by bailing out of the stock market in
>anticipation of it. What everybody is anticipating, in my view, could prove to be
>something similar to what we saw in 1987: The market going crazy.
>INVESTORLINKS: Can you clarify how the NASDAQ fits into this?
>WOLANCHUK: Basically from the 1998 low, the NASDAQ has retraced
>exactly 75 percent of that entire advance in a clean three-wave fashion, which is
>exactly what the DOW did in 1987. It went back to the area of the prior
>consolidation. It was a consolidation in 1999. All through that year was choppy.
>It went up very slowly. I'm saying that the NASDAQ is set up, until the wave
>structure says other wise, to go through 5000 like a hot knife through butter - to
>go through 10,000 and a move towards 20,000.
>INVESTORLINKS: Over what period of time? Five years?
>WOLANCHUK: No, the percentage. Remember it is based on percentages. If
>I'm right, the third wave is going to be a lot faster than the move that NASDAQ
>made from the 1998 low to this past high (March 2000). It should probably take
>half the time that it took on that last big move. If I'm right, we'll go through
>5000 inside this year sometime.
>INVESTORLINKS: Inside this year? Are you serious?
>WOLANCHUK: It did it before. It went from 1200 to 5000 in a space of a year
>(and some). We've had a three-wave decline. If indeed that's a second wave
>pull back. It still counts that way. A third wave is going to be kind of fast and
>furious. Because of that potential, I'm certainly not going to say it's not going to
>happen. I'm going to be prepared for it if it does.
>INVESTORLINKS: Could you explain how this works?
>WOLANCHUK: At the end of a second wave pull back, a second wave pull
>back is … they've got a lot of things going for them. People have got to be
>convinced that they will never see the highs again. People have to be convinced
>that they don't want any part of it. We're seeing a lot of this. After the markets
>crashed in 1987, one of the prominent bears said that the chance of the DOW
>getting above 2700 was 10 percent. Here we are above 10,000. By the way,
>that bear is still bearish. It is very tough being bullish because the market makes
>it easy to be bearish.
>INVESTORLINKS: So which sectors are going to be hot?
>WOLANCHUK: The sectors that everybody hates.
>INVESTORLINKS: Such as tech stocks?
>WOLANCHUK: Take the technology sector - completely sold out as far as I'm
>concerned. Retail? Everybody loves to hate retail. In the meantime, we see
>Home Depot (HD, Chart, Boards) has already gone from $35/share to
>$52/share over the last number of weeks. Intel has got the kind of formations
>that I'm just drooling over because of all the gaps left open above the market.
>I'm rather excited about what I see.
>INVESTORLINKS: Do you think the markets will struggle this year?
>WOLANCHUK: It's going to be a mental struggle. I don't know about the price
>struggle. I don't think there is going to be a price struggle. I think there is going
>to be a mental struggle. People are going to struggle with price.
>INVESTORLINKS: Do you mean that investors are going to be looking at an
>up market and won't believe that it could go higher?
>WOLANCHUK: They did that in 1987 after the crash. If you got caught and
>got wiped out, you're not going to go near the stock market. Investors will listen
>to high profile bearish gurus who will be telling them it's a bear market rally. We
>had a prime example of that happening after 1987. Now I'm even more bullish
>because of the recent correction.
>INVESTORLINKS: Is there anything that would change your mind?
>WOLANCHUK: Yes, if the American Association of Individual Investors got up
>to 75 percent bulls and we got euphoric all over again. That's going to come.
>INVESTORLINKS: How soon?
>"There's going to be a lot of people that will start chasing - if I'm right and we've
>finished up a second wave correction in NASDAQ and it starts to melt up."
>WOLANCHUK: At the top of the next third wave blast. There's going to be a
>lot of people that will start chasing - if I'm right and we've finished up a second
>wave correction in NASDAQ and it starts to melt up. There are no sellers left
>because everybody's bailed out of the stock market. People are going to be
>chasing stocks. Not everybody is just going to stand around and call it a bear
>market rally forever. When you chase stocks in a sold out market, you see the
>net results. It goes absolutely hairy. Look at what the NASDAQ did coming out
>of the 1998 hole. It was so doom and gloom in the 1998 low. It went from 1200
>and it doubled in price vertically in a matter of weeks.
>INVESTORLINKS: Which stocks should investors consider at this point?
>WOLANCHUK: You just spread it around. Qualcomm (QCOM, Chart,
>Boards), in my view, is a great situation, Some of the blue chips, like SBC
>Communications (SBC, Chart, Boards). It wouldn't surprise me to see General
>Motors (GM, Chart, Boards) take off. Disney (DIS, Chart, Boards) is another.
>Procter and Gamble (PG, Chart, Boards) is another great looking situation. It
>got whacked and it came back nicely. It's consolidating. There's huge gaps just
>above the market all the way up to $85/share. It should take out $118/share or
>$120/share. It's been there before.
>INVESTORLINKS: Should we expect optimism over the coming year?
>WOLANCHUK: No. I don't want optimism. I want rising prices against the
>background of pessimism. Something like we saw through 1988 and 1989.
>INVESTORLINKS: Is that the bull market climbing the wall of worry?
>WOLANCHUK: Of course that's what we want and that's what we're going to
>get. You know how we're going to get the wall of worry? It goes up slow. It
>could be fast. There's two ways of leaving the world behind. The market goes
>up super fast, catches everybody. Or the markets go up slow with lots of
>correction. Everybody hates it all the way up because of that. It takes nothing to
>move this DOW two hundred, three, four, five hundred points anymore. When
>we see the epicenter of Primary Wave Three, there is going to be a
>thousand-point up day in the DOW. It's coming.
>INVESTORLINKS: Could the NASDAQ make a thousand-point gain in one
>day?
>WOLANCHUK: Absolutely. You can't have the epicenter Primary Wave Three
>of Three to the upside unless it is broad-based. All sectors going up in unison.
>That is a broad move. The last time we saw a broad move like that was coming
>out of the 1982 low.
>INVESTORLINKS: Any advice to investors who sold short this market or
>selling it short?
>WOLANCHUK: I hope they stay short.
>INVESTORLINKS
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