-->Would Less Be More, or is there Really no Upward Limit?
Outlook upon the year 2007



Contrary to the expectations of many people, the year 2006 has again been characterized by skyrocketing stock prices. Due to the still prevailing low interest rates and the high liquidity, investment in dividend-bearing securities has again proved to be very lucrative, whereas quite often no suitable alternatives had been available. High volatility affecting currencies of emerging markets in newly industrialized countries and several bankruptcies of hedge funds could not seriously disturb stock markets. Although it has meanwhile become a rather permanent feature, the Middle East crisis as well as the smouldering Iraq war never seriously impaired the international financial markets.

As it always happens at year-end, there is the question: Which changes will happen regarding the subject of financial investments? The hitherto rather vague outlines of the global geopolitical situation apparently get more sharply defined. Russia and China continue their political and economic ascent, worrying thereby above all the U.S. For the first time since six years, the government of George Bush - after the November elections - met with increasing disapproval of American citizens. The withdrawal of allied auxiliary troops from Iraq is likely to cause far graver problems than did the invasion of this country three years ago. America's failures and weaknesses evidenced by this situation induce Iran and some other States to claim more political influence for themselves, supported by the certainty of being fully backed up by the antagonists of the U.S. These moves are further encouraged by the irremediably messed-up situation in Afghanistan.

In this transition period, all involved parties should be interested, for their reciprocal benefit, to bring about and maintain a certain consolidation during some time. Expressed in other words: A weakened U.S. does not benefit anybody, but will seriously harm the global trading in goods, causing thereby losses to the nations depending mainly on exports. In China, this could eliminate numerous jobs which in turn might set off massive riots. Resorting to an accurately targeted depreciation of the US-Dollar as a remedying measure would entail the side effect of additional losses suffered by the main financiers of the American balance-of-trade and payment deficits.

Based on the scenario of a rather compulsory coexistence under a different set of changing prerequisites, we consequently look forward to an appreciating US-Dollar in the coming year, after the said currency has recently been virtually gossiped downward. The mere prospect of a genuine political reorientation after the next U.S. elections, coupled with the foreseeable end of the war in Iraq and the general reduction of prices for raw materials in the year 2007, suggest that bearish speculators on the Dollar finally have to close positions by profit taking. The above-average profits derived from the bull market in oil and natural resources are unlikely to occur again in 2007, which is certainly in the very interest of the global community.

In contrast to the opinion of many other people, we feel that - under the prerequisites to be expected - there is no longer any likelihood of exorbitant profits in gold (USD 630.50 per oz.) and gold mining stocks (HUI-Index 348.00). At long last, the hitherto ceaselessly skyrocketing prices will be stopped by an impassable ceiling.

May all our readers experience a peaceful, prosperous and happy New Year!



Zug, 15 December 2006

-->>Der Rückzug ist sauber, rasch und ganz schön heftig.


hi Emerald,

wer will denn das wissen?

Aber du hast uns doch schon informiert, dass"es" noch"eine laengere
Zeit anhalten werde"....der Rueckzug.

Wo er hingeht?

Wieso wissen das denn deine Kleinstadt-Insider nicht,
wo du doch ansonsten mit dem Ohr an der Wand alle Neuigkeiten
gefluestert bekommst.;,,,,,,,.?

Offensichtlich ist aber ja wohl Gold immer noch (oder wieder) viiiiiiiiiiel zu teuer gewesen, nachdem der Pseudo-Aufwaertstrenbd seit Oktober wieder in sich zusammengekappt ist.

tschuess und schoenes
Wochenende
G.C.

-->Hallo.

Ich meine, die weitere Entwicklung hängt doch hauptsächlich von den politischen Ereignissen im Nahen und Mittleren Osten, und von der Entwicklung des Rohölpreises, ab.
Es gibt zu viele Leute, die an hohen Rohstoffpreisen interessiert sind, und die daher die Kriegsgefahren dort am Köcheln halten werden.

Nur wenn die Weltwirtschaft wegen anderer Probleme (z.B. Klima-Katastrophen) in eine schwere Krise kommt, dann gehts mit den Preisen weiter begab.

E. B.

-->>Der Rückzug ist sauber, rasch und ganz schön heftig.
>
>E.

-->400 $ ist nicht mein Ziel, sondern 480 - 500 $, s. Link unten.

Wo ist eigentlich pecunia? Ob er noch den Deckel sucht, der bei 640 $ wegfliegen sollte?
<ul> ~ http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/370177.htm</ul>

-->wo Gold in USD gerechnet"hält",. In CHF oder EUR gerechnet ist noch nicht viel passiert, immer noch in irgendeinem"Dreieck".In Q2/Q3/Q4 2006 waren wir in CHF oder EUR schon tiefer. Einige Zahlen in CHF:

52 week high 11.05.2006 28696 CHF
52 week low 06.01.2006 21470 CHF
today 24148 CH

so what? Sieht irgendwer Anzeichen, dass die Zentralbanken mittelfristig gesehen eine Geldmengenpoltik betreiben werden, die für Preissstabilität sorgt? Ist das überhaupt auf Sicht von 5 Jahren noch möglich? Was da passiert, ist mE background noise, das"Papiergoldhalter" ins Schwitzen bringt. Meine gelbe Kacke lagert physisch irgendwo, möglicherweise unterm Klo. Also, was solls.

lg cw

-->Wie so durch die Presse geistert ist doch die Iran-Sache nicht vom Tisch.

Wenn da sich die Anzeichen verdichten, dürfte Gold doch einen neuen Schub bekommen oder?