-->I now see the risk of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch leading to a generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before. In this extreme scenario whose likelihood is increasing we could see a generalized run on some banks; and runs on a couple of weaker (non-bank) broker dealers that may go bankrupt with severe and systemic ripple effects on a mass of highly leveraged derivative instruments that will lead to a seizure of the derivatives markets (think of LTCM to the power of three); a collapse of the ABCP market and a disorderly collapse of the SIVs and conduits; massive losses on money market funds with a run on both those sponsored by banks and those not sponsored by banks (with the latter at even more severe risk as the recent effective bailout of the formers’ losses by theirs sponsoring banks is not available to those not being backed by banks); ever growing defaults and losses ($500 billion plus) in subprime, near prime and prime mortgages with severe known-on effect on the RMBS and CDOs market; massive losses in consumer credit (auto loans, credit cards); severe problems and losses in commercial real estate and related CMBS; the drying up of liquidity and credit in a variety of asset backed securities putting the entire model of securitization at risk; runs on hedge funds and other financial institutions that do not have access to the Fed’s lender of last resort support; a sharp increase in corporate defaults and credit spreads; and a massive process of re-intermediation into the banking system of activities that were until now altogether securitized.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/11/21/9066/stand-by-for-generalised-systemic-financial-meltdown/

Ich denke, daß der Tag nicht mehr weit ist, da solche Schließungen wie im Vorposting angesprochen extreme Maßnahmen sind. Das hört sich bereits nach"Bank holiday" von einem ganzen Markt an.

Ich sage es nur einmal: Leute, holt nicht nur cash heim. Macht den Tank beim Auto voll, und fahrt zur Metro und holt ein paar Kisten voll Nudeln, Dosenfutter, Babywindeln, Damenbinden, Wasser, den ein oder anderen Kanister Sprit. Wenn das alles vorbei geht ohne Probleme, dann kann man das Zeug aufessen.

Man möchte aber nicht genötigt sein, in der Krise tatsächlich seine Münzen für überteuerte Nahrungsmittel auszugeben. Die werden noch gebraucht, um bei komplettem Einfrieren des Kreditmarktes Häuserblocks zu kaufen.

Fraglich ist nur, ob das, was danach kommt, Grundbücher als rechtliche Basis anerkennt...

Lustig, daß das ganze ausgerechnet über Thanksgiving passiert.

Gruß DT

-->Citing credit and volatility issues the European Covered Bond Council halted Interbank covered bond trading.

Renewed credit turmoil and volatility led the European Covered Bond Council (ECBC) on Wednesday to suspend inter-bank market-making in covered bonds until Monday, Nov. 26. The move is a sign of the stress in the covered bond market, which is dominated by German institutions that have almost a trillion euros of covered bonds outstanding.

My Comment: This is a very serious step. No, it's not priced in.

"Quite a substantial part of the recent spread widening, particularly in the last three to four days, was driven by the mechanics of the inter-dealer market making obligation," he said."There is even some evidence that those bonds that are of high liquidity have been more heavily penalised than those which are less liquid."

My Comment: Penalized is not the right word for it. Institutions are short on cash. The only way to raise cash is to sell something that has value. Perhaps what is not selling simply has little value.

"Due to general market conditions and the specific mechanics of the inter-dealer market making it even seems possible that inter-dealer market making will not be resumed this year," Anhamm said.

My Comment: Halted for the rest of the year? Sheesh. Do they think asset quality is supposed to improve in the next month and a half? I don't. There will likely be a flood of sell orders in January if they freeze the market this long.

European credit spreads have widened significantly in the last couple of weeks on growing concerns about bank writedowns on subprime-related exposures.

But increased market volatility this week has prompted Ireland's AIB Mortgage Bank, a unit of Allied Irish Banks Plc, and Britain's Abbey National Treasury Services, part of Spain's Santander to postpone covered bond issues.

My Comment: As I said earlier today in Citibank SIVs Hit Norway Townships, ABCP problems are turning up everywhere. Now we see they have completely locked up European Interbank Covered Bond Trading.

Is it any wonder gold is soaring and back over $800?

Minyan Peter was the first to point out the significance of Europe in regards to commercial paper. He wrote"As goes Europe so goes the world." If true, the implications are both stunning and obvious. It time for everyone to take another look at his Minyan Mailbag: Why Europe Matters More.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/europe-banks-ABCP/index/a/14973

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>hier

konnte das auch aufs zweite lesen hin unter dem link nicht finden

rahim