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The last week's forecast, that the S&P 500 would likely peak somewhere below 1280, was right on target. I think that the market will definitely break the most recent low in coming sessions. Thereafter, strong support will likely be met near the lower border of the channel. If the wave scenario presented on the chart is unfolding, the S&P 500 should spend a couple of weeks or more in a sideways mode oscillating within a wide range, the advance to a price above the highest point of the suspected wave iv seen unlikely. However, one more possibility must not be overlooked. You know that existence of an alternative scenario usually results from an uncertainty in identification of the waves' degree. In our case, a downward move assumed to be the second phase of the wave iv could turn out to be the wave of a larger degree, i.e. the wave v. If so, the next drop will finally break the channel. As mentioned in the 02/25/2001 update, a target for the length of the wave 3 results from 1.62 relationship between lengths of the waves 1 and 3.


<ul> ~ Quelle</ul>
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