Category: General Interest
From: not_a_random_walk (Dennis Shumaker)
To: ALL
Date Posted: March 15, 2001 at 10:06:12
Subject: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious




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All stock indexes got a good gap up this morning..
HOWEVER, they are traing flat, very flat...

All are well withing dropping to new lows.

For example, a 100 point drop NASDAQ comp would set
new lows from here.

In my opinion folks, this is the EDGE.. IF NASDAQ was
to set new lows, then it woujld have to head to the
Oct 1998 lows - three is nothing in between.

The market is anxious about Uncle Larry (ORCL) and his release
after the close.

The market is hopeful for a 75bps.. but 75 bps are hard to come
by from Greenspan. Greenspan's limit is 50 and he already did
two of those.

Greenspan may only do 25bps!

WHY?

HAS ANYONE NOTICED THE RATES FROM EUROPE??

While Easy Al was HACKING THE RATES bigtime, our European friends
have not been so cut happy. In fact, some of the German bonds are on the
verge of passing US bonds.

If EASY ALL cuts 50, they will pass US bonds.. this is not good.




Category: General Interest
From: ross (Ross Moyer)
To: not_a_random_walk (Dennis Shumaker)
Date Posted: March 15, 2001 at 10:17:59
Subject: Re: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious
Reference: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious




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The rest of the world wants to take us DOW(n) a peg or two even if it means they go with us, because when the smoke clears they expect to have the upper hand. After all, the main reason the U.S.
has been a hegemonic power was because the Europeans blew themselves up, and we filled the vaccumm. I know this may seem rather unpatriotic, not attributing our greatness to primarily our own efforts, but there it is.





Category: General Interest
From: bearrister (Gordon Kinder)
To: ross (Ross Moyer)
Date Posted: March 15, 2001 at 10:52:34
Subject: Re: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious
Reference: Re: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious




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U BET they do. Look at regional efforts like AIRBUS which is eating Boeing's LUNCH, IMHO.
Boeing airplane exports, BTW, are THE main contributor to offsetting our still growing trade imbalance. It grew yet AGAIN, in the fourth quarter, an ominous and as yet latent threat to the DOLLAR.

But, hey! don't WORRY! The guest (Cramer) and Squawk Box staff aren't worried about it threating the BUCK. (Haynes/Gibbs)

Europeans have been at each other's throats since the dawn of time. I wouldn't underestimate their capacity for collective self-destruction. Their economies are beleagured by aging populations with staggering social payment obligations, which they cannot, and, allegedly, will not honor. I recall reading in the FT YEARS ago a high French official who, in addressing the retirement system burdens in this new Century, said they had"absolutely no intention whatsoever" of honoring them.

The ERM/EMU is being stressed to the breaking point already - it is a fragile mechanism, thus far.

The Asians are stepping up efforts at regional cooperation.

In all fairness to the U.S. our might put us on top. Half a century ago we had the huge, thriving manufacturing base to overwhelm the Axis powers. Today, we don't.

The frightening thing about WWII is that we remained mired in deflation, here, until it came along.

Our manufacturing sector, so vital to an industrial superpower, is having the TAR kicked out of it, and, during the past quarter century has been severely weakened, esp. heavy manufacturing.

Hope we don't get into another WWII like position where our survival depends upon manufacturing. If we do, we're TOAST, probably.





Category: General Interest
From: ross (Ross Moyer)
To: bearrister (Gordon Kinder)
Date Posted: March 15, 2001 at 11:05:55
Subject: Re: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious
Reference: Re: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious




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Yes, I agree that the U.S. raw manufacturing might, among other things, allowed us to kick our foes assess, but all I am suggesting is, that had the Euros not self immolated, then we would not be in our pre-eminent position today. There is nothing like a war on your own soil to destroy your position of pre-eminence. Dont worry, Gordon, I, like you, studied and study Eurpean affairs and history, and I am well aware of the Euros past and present difficulties, all this by way of saying, nice post.





Category: General Interest
From: not_a_random_walk (Dennis Shumaker)
To: ross (Ross Moyer)
Date Posted: March 15, 2001 at 10:46:05
Subject: Re: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious
Reference: Re: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious




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NO, I like your opinion on this.
Many countries that either had a currency crisis,
a recession or depression during the 90s actually
ended up helping the US$. It seemed the worst off
our neighbors got, the better for the USA!

England is glad to devalue their pound?
Japan is glad to devalue the Yen?

It makes all of their citizens HAPPY?

They are so eager to help prop up US markets and the US $.

Even Japn recently reiterated that they are tired of
proping up the US$ because it has hurt them.


Maybe we see a tide change in that WHILE EASY ALL SLASHES rates,
foreigners are not so quick to do the same!

75bps is a no-no wrt/ to this concern
even 50 bps puts US bonds in a serious position compared
to some Euorpean bonds, if ther Europeans again DO NOT FOLLOW
the USA's lead down with rates.

IMHO, Greenspan is limited to only 25bps UNLESS our foreign buddies
cut their rates 1 for 1, ie 50 bps for 50 bps

25 bps would be an ABSOLUTE SHOCKER AND A MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT
Enough to drive the DJIA to less than 8,000.






Category: General Interest
From: ross (Ross Moyer)
To: not_a_random_walk (Dennis Shumaker)
Date Posted: March 15, 2001 at 10:59:43
Subject: Re: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious
Reference: Re: Stock indexes riding very FLAT, very cautious




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I'm glad we agree, and I also agree that a.25 point cut would be a major, major dissapointment. A.25 cut may get you a.25 cut or better.










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