Hi, dieses vom klugen Mr. Barry Riley (FT UK) ist ziemlich gut:

"The global stock market has progressed in strong waves recently, with
the FTSE World Index in dollars falling 27 per cent between August and
March, then rebounding 15 per cent.

In the extreme case of the US Nasdaq the movements have been much
greater - a decline of 61 per cent and a recovery of 41 per cent over
the same periods.

But during the past couple of weeks the markets have started to retreat
again slightly. The next stage will be critical.

A modest recovery in commodity prices has faltered too (though oil
still threatens the Dollars 30-a-barrel level). Base metals, in
particular, have weakened.

The common factor influencing equities and industrial commodities is
that hopes of a quick global recovery have faded, and the markets have
had to adjust to disappointing output statistics and further corporate
earnings downgrades.

<font color="FF0000">Financial historians like Bob Hoye, of the Vancouver-based newsletter
and website Institutional Advisors, point to similarities with the
closing stages of past great bubbles. After a strong rally, such
markets have entered a second major decline - as Wall Street did in the
latter part of 1930.</font>

The first wave of selling can be described as technical, being related
to the unwinding of speculation. This time the decline culminated in a
phase of extreme weakness in March.

Waiting on the sidelines, however, has been a massive volume of
liquidity to fuel the rally, encouraged by rapid interest rate cuts.

A second wave of selling, however, is based on fundamentals, as
investors struggle to adjust to weak earnings trends (aggravated by the
dilution of existing capital as balance sheets receive emergency
repairs).

Alan Greenspan, curiously, is not helping much. Speaking in Singapore on
Monday he boasted that there was little danger of inflation in the US
economy. But that was due to"a very extraordinary lack of pricing
power" and pressure on profit margins. That does not sound very
encouraging for equities.

A debate is visible at Goldman Sachs, where two of the firm's top US
economists have just published a research paper* on the collapse of the
great capital investment boom.

William Dudley and Jan Hatzius say there has been too much optimism in
the US corporate sector about the future rate of return on capital,
which in fact stagnated in the late 1990s and is now declining
significantly.

Valiantly, nonetheless, the firm's global strategist Neil Williams is
trying to defend the 14 per cent consensus earnings growth rate for
global equities pencilled in by analysts for 2002, although he admits
that there is a normal upwards bias.

The year-ahead forecasts during the 1990s were, on average,
overestimates by a margin of 8 percentage points. Goldman's own top
down forecast for earnings growth in 2002 is 10 per cent, starting from
a weak base level. The consensus expectation for 2001 is minus 1 per
cent, although the out-turn could easily be worse because a terrible
earnings reporting season is in the offing.

Given very unfamiliar conditions, the key question is whether we should
seek guidance from the last 25 years or the last century.

Recoveries have been reliable after the relatively mild recessions
experienced during the past few decades. Wall Street has always rallied
strongly if interest rates have been cut, as this year, as much as five
times.

But then, the US bubble of the late 1990s may turn out to have been more
akin to the 1980s Japanese bubble than to the various smaller market
cycles on Wall Street during the past half-century.

Immense volumes of potential savings are driving the markets. Indeed,
governments are seeking to solve their long-term pensions problems by
encouraging investment in bonds and equities. But there could be a
shortage of profitable investment opportunities.

<font color="FF0000">It is quite possible that 21st century telecoms will turn out in the
long run to be rather like 19th century railroads, being extremely
valuable for the economy but deeply disappointing for investors.</font> (JüKüs Reden seit eh & je.)

History offers a sketchy guide rather than a precise blueprint.

The global equity market does not have to follow the pattern of the
early 1930s on Wall Street, or even the 1990s in Tokyo. But it seems
prudent to expect that the turnround will take a long time."

Die Goldman, Sachs-Studie habe ich leider (noch) nicht.

Gruß

d.




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