Message:
Jim & Ionsys discuss EW count
Jim: From apr low, we have a 5 wave up move on the daily into apr 20. From may 12 to may 22 we have another 5 wave up on the daily. Now the big question is how these 5 waves fit into the larger picture the first 5 wave is extremely powerful and about twice the size in both time and duration. So are they both of the same degree?( ie. is the 1st one minute degree and the second of minute degree?) If so then we are probabaly looking at a developing third wave extension of minute degree within a larger 5 wave of minor degree.....So that would imply we have completed waves 1 and 2 of the larger 5 wave. We can now start a trend channel for this move, a line thru the apr 4 low and may 12 low, with a parallel line thru the apr 20 top. In doing so we see that we are currently below the lower trend channel line and it has been resistance for the last 3 days. While this is acceptable, it does lessen the probabilities somewhat. What it does imply for sure is that this move up is weak, since it doesn't have enough strength to stay in the trend channel it started. We can also construct another trend channel in the same manner for the move since may 12. Drawing a line thru may 12 low and the late may sub 2100 low for a channel of this potential wave 3, watch the bottom line of that one going forward, that one may hold the bear/bull key.

Ionsys: Some alternatives to consider re COMP----1) We are now in Wave 5 of A--1 was Apr 5, 2 was Apr6 and wave 3 extended into May22 with an elongated subwave (iv)---OR

2) A ended on May 22 and B ended with a 35% retrace on May30 and now we are blasting off in C towards 2600-3000 area---OR

3) A ended on April 20 at 2203 and B is a running triangle, where we have done abc and will finish (d) Friday am near 2300 and then fall back a bit below 2203 for (e)---and THEN blast off for C (EWI favors this one)

New moon and solar eclipse on June 20 fwiw-so CIT in J19-21 area? Of the 3 alternatives above, which one seems the best fit to you?(ignoring others for this purpose)

Jim: Prefer number 2. Number 1 seems OK with wording, but different labeling and as too # 3, what is a RUNNING TRIANGLE, never heard or seen it before in anything we have read on ELLIOTT wave?

Ionsys: Jim--see pg 50 of EWP.....After an uptrend stalls, (a) then goes down, (b) goes back up above the beginning of (a) etc etc but with (e) ending below the beginning of (a)----sort of what MSFT may have been doing recently. EWI feels that this is the only sequence that meets all the rules and guidelines in the case of the COMP at the moment for a B Wave starting from Apr 20.

Jim: OK, all those wave a thru e 3 waves like other triangles. What about wave 5 from May 12 to May 22? (daily)

songyun: I take it the EW STU (short term update) is expecting a High 6/20?


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