Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - Gedanken zur Lösung des Goldproblemes von Bill Murphy (Gata)

R.Deutsch

17.06.2001, 11:48

Gedanken zur Lösung des Goldproblemes von Bill Murphy (Gata)

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This is what I think is going on.

For the past year I have asked my GATA delegation colleagues what
could be done to solve the gold problem. That is, say I am the
president of the United States, I know GATA is right,and I have
called the Howes and Venerosos in, seeking suggestions on the best
way to undo the gold mess created by the Clinton administration.

My colleagues have mostly answered,"I don't know." To illustrate
just how serious and complicated the gold problem is, Frank
Veneroso's specialty was crisis management. The finance ministers of
Chile and Mexico called on Frank to help them solve economic crises.
He knew just what advice to give them. But on gold he draws a blank.

In recent Midas commentary, I have mentioned some anecdotal
information about the government's main bank, J.P. Morgan Chase, like
its stopping as many of the June Comex gold deliveries as possible.
GATA also knows that the president, economic adviser Lawrence
Lindsey, and Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill are very aware of the
gold problem. We also know that the volatility in the gold price has
increased dramatically in the past month and that the lease rates
remain high.

My hunch is that to minimize damage in the unwinding of the gold
fraud, the Bush Administration directed that the gold lease rates be
taken to high enough levels to shrink the contango and discourage
forward selling. That would tend to reduce the total number of short
positions. That was the first step.

Step 2 would be to increase the gold volatility in a deliberate
effort to warn market participants that a big gold event is coming
and that to be overly short or too aggressive in writing calls is
liable to be very dangerous, or even fatal, in the very near future.

They probably know that J.P. Morgan Chase has to be bailed out
officially by the U.S. government in some way -- under the"too big
to fail" principle. Their short position is just too big to be
covered. How they will present this to Congress and the American
public is hard to say. What they must be trying to do now is reduce
the collateral damage to other gold shorts that will happen when they
let the gold price go.

With increasing volatility before the gold price takes off, a good
number of gold market players should be scared out their vulnerable
gold short positions, and out of their potentially disastrous written
call option positions. The goal must be to have the Comex open
interest as low as possible when the gold price explodes. And, in
fact, the gold Comex open interest right now is an extremely low
118,677 contracts.

That J.P. Morgan has taken in thousands of Comex gold contracts also
fits, as it will make it harder for longs to squeeze Comex in the
coming gold debacle, or cause an exchange default.

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black elk

17.06.2001, 12:21

@ R.Deutsch

BAILOUTS, SACRIFICIAL GOATS, CRONY CAPITALISM

Anatomy of a Gold Workout

BAILOUTS, SACRIFICIAL GOATS, CRONY CAPITALISM

Per my earlier post as quoting Midas that all the King’s men couldn’t solve the gold problem, it is really a sad state when a mere spec of au must come bail out the bailer-outers. But duty calls and I will help poor old Professor V. and the current Administration ketchup on the ways of the wise {men} {hello cb2}, a few humble suggestions in actuality.
All one has to do in order to solve the gold dilemma is to look back through the distant annals of history, focus in closely on the last 3-5 years, and voila!, the answers appear. This piece of work/dung {take your pick} will venture on a cynical but very truthful tour through three basic categories of advanced ‘reorganization ‘ methodology; 1. SCAVENGE 2.BAILOUT 3.OOPS, SORRY.

We shall start with the scavenge category because the vultures like to eat early. Let’s look closely at recent mining share history, back a few scant years to the Ashanti fiasco, in which I was an active participant to the detriment of my account portfolio balance. Might I gently ask who is picking the carcass of Ashanti, and at who’s expense? There are still some shares listed in my account, but no value is assigned to them. Oops, my bad. However, it seems that the gold formerly owned by ‘Ashanti’ has not disappeared, but has merely changed hands. Am I right here? This prototypical ‘Ashantization’ will become a roadmap for many more hedgehogs, as the gold manipulation unwinds. Barrick, AngloGold, multiple Australian miners, and other foolhardy entities around the globe will be raped by what they’ve sown. Some think these may become candidates for ‘sacrificial goats’, but that will actually not be the case. They certainly wouldn’t sacrifice Barrick insiders, maybe Barrick shareholders would be willing/available to take one for the Power Elite? Think they care anything about those foolish enough to Chase the gold windmill? Haven’t we already seen their contempt for gold shareholders, as well as any other form of gold aficionado? We're down the list after smokers and dentists. Ashanti assets {as well as Barrick’s should it be required} live on, to be picked up for nearly nothing by another insider favored and owned mega/mini/wannabee Vulture.
Remember Barrick was raised up from nothing but dust, it wouldn’t be real hard to do it all over once more, given the right connections, again. It is nothing more than an expendable vehicle. So the insiders must simply decide if an insolvent company, such as Ashanti was, is to be bailed out or simply scavenged. Who will get what treatment? Maybe we should look at who the corporate insiders are in a particular company, guess Ashanti fell a few directors short {ha}. Maybe we can watch together for some **insider selling** as the gold sickle falls? Ashanti wasn’t bailed out, merely picked clean. That’s what they get for being a public company w/o insider connections and ownership. They actually did have a GS connection, but it was mostly in a financial advisory capacity, LOL. Follow the Gold. Follow the Title. Follow the $. Follow the Cronies. This should scare the pants off anyone foolish enough to own an overly hedged miner at this point in the game.
The second tool in the bag of the Elitists for when times get a bit challenging is the actual Bailout technique. We look back a few short years so we are able to look forward a few short years {months?}. With the S&L bailout motto being “We bail out our friends, we don’t bailout the public”, it is simply buyer beware, but for the public only. In the LTCM screw up they were deemed “too big to fail”. Who exactly was too big to fail? Merriweather lives and works on, with a minor blot on the corporate resume, again practicing his flawed schemes. He was quite successfully bailed out, no? A better term would be “too well connected to fail”, for a little more truth and transparency in Govmt. So, Professor V, please tell the King that some of the gold insiders will be eligible for re-Knighthood. See Mexico and Russia.
Howe about GS, sacrificial goat or bailout? Your guess is as good as mine, but I distinctly remember they were taken public not long ago, making them at least vulnerable to a ‘reorganization’. Oops, another minor blot on the resume. Maybe we should all run out and buy some GS or JPM/C stock and play the game with the big boys? We would be deemed “too stupid to succeed”!
Now with the bailout scenario, I want to make sure I have this down perfectly correct. Robby Rubin is going to dig deep down into his pocket, taking his own honestly earned assets, and then personally go door to door, and make whole each and every individual investor. Apologizing profusely, and sincerely promising to never again take reckless risks with shareholder money. Also swearing off ever again holding a position of public trust or Corporate leadership. Is that the way it is to work? Maybe this should scare the remaining under garments off of some of the shareholders of these investment banks.
Now we get to my final and favorite category for solving the King’s problem, the Oops, Sorry tool. Per Professor V., for whom we all owe a deep debt of gratitude, the CBs have leased out up to ½ of their gold supply. Will they somehow find a way to get this gold back? Will they continue to empty the vaults to contain the coming damage? They lent this gold out in perfectly good faith, right? Every intention of getting it back, no devious motives involved whatsoever, only sincere public fiduciary responsibilities? Right.
People act as though the Cbs lost ‘their’ gold and now must be frantically trying to figure a way to get it back, ADULT MALE BOVINE FECES! They lost OUR gold and they could care less about fiduciary responsibility, their answer to that will be…..OOPS, SORRY.
So there you go Mr. President, your problem is now solved, you can now ‘get back to work for the American People' {Oops, Sorry, wrong President. It must be contagious}. You merely figure your closest homeys, bail em out, figure who needs their bones picked, and do a 'Oops, Sorry' for everyone else. Problem solved. Worked for Clinton.
Please let me know if ANOTHER crisis arises.
auspec

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Talleyrand 17.06.2001, 12:25 @ R.Deutsch	Sind die Lease Rates denn wirklich hoch? Ich denke nein. Wunschdenken. (owT)
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Diogenes

17.06.2001, 14:14

@ Talleyrand

Re: Sind die Lease Rates denn wirklich hoch? Ich denke nein. Wunschdenken. (owT)

Hi Talleyrand,

"Hoch" ist relativ, für Gold sind so um die 2 % hoch.
Weit wichtiger sind Ali Greenspans Zinssenkungen. Dadurch wird der Spread zwischen Goldleihezinsen und US-Staatsanleihen (Kurzläufer) kleiner, wodurch sich der Goldcarrytrade nicht mehr rentiert.
Wenn das so weiter geht, wird der Carrytrade zu einem saftigen Verlustgeschäft für die Banken - der Pleitegeier lächelt zum Fenster herein.
Sollten sie dann versuchen werden den Trade zu schließen, sprich das Gold zu retournieren, geht der Preis ab Richtung Mond - der Pleitegeier greift erst recht zu.

Ich würde meinen, die Herrschaften sitzen ganz schön in der Tinte.
Gruß
Diogenes

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Tofir 17.06.2001, 23:28 @ Diogenes	...aber mit dieser Tinte werden sie leider noch um sich schmeissen! (owT)
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Diogenes 18.06.2001, 11:55 @ Tofir	:-))) alles kommt zu dem der warten kann... (owT)
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Gedanken zur Lösung des Goldproblemes von Bill Murphy (Gata)

BAILOUTS, SACRIFICIAL GOATS, CRONY CAPITALISM

Sind die Lease Rates denn wirklich hoch? Ich denke nein. Wunschdenken. (owT)

Re: Sind die Lease Rates denn wirklich hoch? Ich denke nein. Wunschdenken. (owT)

...aber mit dieser Tinte werden sie leider noch um sich schmeissen! (owT)

:-))) alles kommt zu dem der warten kann... (owT)