...die updates sind selten geworden, vielleicht auch weil Kaplan oft daneben lag.

SUMMARY: My current outlook has improved to MODERATELY BEARISH. Traders' commitments show that commercials are continuing to modestly reduce their net short position as the price of gold declines. Right now the pivot point for gold (at which commercials are net neutral) is about $262 spot. Since gold is likely to move several dollars below the pivot as commercials go net long and stale speculator sell stops are triggered, eventually gold will decline to around $255 spot, probably in August. On a very short-term basis, gold might see a bounce-back rally following Wednesday's BOE gold auction which will bring the XAU back up near resistance at 56, but the XAU will later bottom close to 46. The most sensible action is to remain in cash for now. Above-average put-call ratios (the equity put-call index touched 0.91 on Friday afternoon) indicate that even the hated Nasdaq and telecom shares are probably due for a sharp short-term bounce. When purchasing any equities, gold mining or otherwise, avoid buying on margin and never purchase call options, so that the magnitude of the eventual gain is the only important issue, rather than the vagaries of precise timing or interim volatility. Always stick with companies that have strong, growing earnings; avoid companies with losses. Occasionally a money-losing company will suddenly turn around and become profitable but that is the rare exception.

Be sure to read (or attend) Eugene Ionesco's fabulous play RHINOCEROS.

KAPLAN'S CORNER: QUESTION: What do you think of Barrick Gold's acquisition of Homestake Mining? ANSWER: Barrick could have saved at least 25% of their money simply by waiting a mere two weeks for a lower Homestake share price (savings of 15%), and by paying a premium of 20%, which would have been more than sufficient (the actual premium was 31%; this would have represented an additional savings of 11%). With real patience they could have saved 40%, simply by waiting for commercials to go heavily net long COMEX gold futures. I guess that Barrick doesn't follow (or simply chooses to ignore, as do 90% of gold investors) the traders' commitments, which is interesting, since they are one of the largest commercials represented in those commitments. Since Peter Munk's departure as CEO, Barrick has made several poor management decisions; this has to be worrisome to investors considering Barrick's status as a heavy player in the gold hedging market. Of course, real"goldbugs" don't own Barrick anyway, given their long-standing policy of essentially selling short gold whenever its price is perceived to be overvalued. Given the relatively large number of gold mining companies for its small total market capitalization, consolidation in the industry is likely to continue at about the same pace that it has proceeded over the past several years (i.e., about two or three mergers per year). A look at Royal Gold's (RGLD) stock price over the past week suggests that it is currently a possible takeover target, but that is just my guess, not based on any inside information.



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