Hi!
Die Höhe der möglichen BIP-Revision ist mehrfach angesprochen worden, aber wie sehen die Berechnungen bisher aus und welche Unsicherheiten gibt es noch.
Von der ersten Veröffentlichung (Advance) bis zur zweiten (Preliminary) haben die Handelsbilanz (International Trade) und die Lagerbestände (Business Inventories) den grössten Einfluss auf die zu erwartende Revision. Erste war im Rahmen der Erwartungen, während die Lagerbestände im Juni deutlich schlechter ausfielen, macht gleich minus 40 Basispunkte, die von den 0,7% abgezogen werden müssen.
Nimmt man die anderen Revisionen noch hinzu, ergeben sich insgesamt 60"sichere" Basispunkte, die das BIP verliert. Aber es wäre langweilig morgen, gäbe es da nicht noch einen Unsicherheitfaktor von 20 - 30 Basispunkten, der bedingt ist durch die fehlenden Angaben für öffentliche Ausgaben und Verbraucherausgaben für Dienstleistungen.
schöne Grüsse
Cosa
Der gesamte Artikel:
<font size="4">Economy Likely Went Nowhere </font>
By Wes Basel
08/27/01 8:00 AM ET
Revisions to baseline data incorporated in the second quarter GDP measure have been mostly negative in the month since the release of the advance estimate. Larger than anticipated inventory cutbacks are a particular constraint. The expected second quarter GDP growth rate has been cut 60 basis points, from 0.7% in the advance release, to 0.1% in the expectation for this week's release. Still, the lack of data regarding government spending and consumer spending on services leads to an uncertainty factor of 20 to 30 basis points.
![[image]]([/img] <br />
<br />
The most volatile components of GDP between the advance and<br />
preliminary revisions are business inventories and the trade balance. The trade balance reported for<br />
June was in line with earlier estimates by the BEA, so little impact on GDP is expected. Business<br />
inventories, however, fell more than expected in June. <br />
<br />
On average, the second quarter change in business inventories was weaker by $9 billion relative to the earlier estimate. The impact on GDP is a downward revision in the annualized growth rate of 40 basis points (see table). The deeper than anticipated cut in inventory stockpiles is a long-term positive for the economy, but will remain a drag on the economy through the third quarter. <br />
<br />
<i>bitte weiter scrollen, leider eine Lücke:-( Uwe hat es Tausend mal erklärt wie funktioniert, hab es mindestens so häufig vergessen.</i><br />
<table width="400" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"><br />
<tr><td><br />
<table width="100%" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" align="center"><br />
<br />
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top"><br />
<td valign="bottom" width=20%><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2"><b>Component</b></font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center" width=20%><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2"><b>August Revision</b></font></td><td valign="bottom" colspan="2" align="center" width=20%><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2"><b>Impact on GDP</b></font></td><td valign="bottom" colspan=3 align=center width=20%><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2"><b>Resultant Q2 Growth annualized % change</b></font></td><br />
</tr><br />
<br />
<tr><td colspan="10">[img]) </td></tr>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
<td valign="bottom"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">Advance GDP Estimate</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2"></font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center" colspan=2><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2"></font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">0.73%</font></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
<td valign="bottom"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">Business Inventories</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-$9 billion</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center" colspan=2><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-40 basis points</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">0.34%</font></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
<td valign="bottom"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">Net Exports</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">Minimal</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center" colspan=2><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">0</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">0.34%</font></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
<td valign="bottom"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">Nonres. Construction</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-1.0%</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center" colspan=2><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-4 basis points</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">0.30%</font></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
<td valign="bottom"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">Business Equipment</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-0.5%</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center" colspan=2><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-5 basis points</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">0.25%</font></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
<td valign="bottom"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">Consumer Goods, excl. MVs</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-0.3%</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center" colspan=2><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-8 basis points</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">0.17%</font></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
<td valign="bottom"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">Consumer Motor Vehicles</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-0.3%</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center" colspan=2><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">-9 basis points</font></td><td valign="bottom" align="center"><FONT FACE="Arial" SIZE="2">0.09%</font></td>
</tr>
</table>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
Most of the improvement is occurring on retail shelves. Manufacturers' inventory-to-sales ratios were stable in the second quarter, as inventory cutting just kept pace with reduced sales. Wholesale inventories have never been seriously out of balance during the current cycle. Improved inventory tracking technology and close coordination with suppliers and retailers allow quicker response times by wholesalers.
Business spending on construction and equipment was also weaker than previously estimated. The slowdown in office demand is leading to sharp delays in project completions. Computer equipment spending continues to fall in tandem with more traditional industrial equipment purchases. The downward revisions to these components led to a further 4 or 5 basis point cut each in estimated GDP growth.
Consumer spending is the least volatile measurement incorporated into the month-to-month revisions of GDP, but due to the large size of overall consumption, it still has a substantial impact. Excluding autos, retail sales growth was about 30 basis points weaker than previously reported. The downward revision was broad-based, impacting food, computers and general merchandise sales. Furniture sales and restaurant receipts are weathering the slowdown best at present.
No revised data from the previous month are available for either government spending or consumer spending on services, such as utilities and personal services. Revisions to these components can be substantial, leading to the high degree of uncertainty in our expectations, even just a few days before the new release.
Nevertheless, it is likely that GDP growth was indistinguishable from zero in the second quarter. Apart from the psychological impact on consumer and business decisions, however, the qualitative difference between zero growth and 0.7% is negligible. To maintain a steady unemployment rate, given the long-term rate of population growth, requires a job formation rate of 1%. To replace capital stock as it depreciates requires further growth of 0.5% to 1%. So an overall economic pace of expansion near 2% is necessary to avoid real declines in the standard of living.
<center>
<HR>
</center> |
Thread-Ansicht
Board-Ansicht
Thread gesperrt
