-->und seit gestern 'wissen' wir ja, dass es sich nur noch um Tage handeln kann...
Reuters
No Iraq oil boom seen for five years-report
Wednesday April 2, 6:00 pm ET
By Richard Mably
LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil nationalism and the high political risk attached to big-ticket investments are set to delay a post-war Iraq oil boom for years, a leading London thinktank said in a new report published on Thursday.
Oil majors will want to wait for a legitimate new government to settle in Baghdad before risking full-blown investment in undeveloped oilfields, said the report by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA).
"Although Iraq is sitting on massive oil reserves it will be years before they are tapped," it said."It is likely to take over five years for a legitimate regime to be fully established."
The report forecasts Iraqi oil production growth will be severely restricted after the fall of the goverment of Saddam Hussein. In five years it sees less than a million barrels a day on top of the 2.8 million barrels daily Baghdad could pump before Washington launched its war against Saddam.
It predicts oil companies will be nervous about long-term investment in the early years post-Saddam for fear of losing millions of dollars if a U.S.-installed government fails.
"Oil companies are too smart to make long-term investments too early," said Valerie Marcel, the report's main author.
"Instead they will try to get their foot in the door with short-term and service contracts that can still allow a progressive expansion of output to 3.5 million barrels a day within five years."
U.S. companies ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM - News), ChevronTexaco (NYSE:CVX - News) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP - News) are expected to compete with Anglo-Dutch Shell Group (Amsterdam:RD.AS - News; London:SHEL.L - News), Britain's BP (London:BP.L - News) and TotalFinaElf (Paris:TOTF.PA - News) of France for major production contracts should Iraq privatise its oil industry.
But oil nationalism also will stymie long-term investment in the big projects needed to bring onstream Iraqi oilfields, where reserves rank second only to Saudi Arabia, said the report.
"It is likely Iraqis would rather delay their oil boom than open the door too wide to foreign companies," the RIIA said.
The forecasts will make comforting reading for Iraq's fellow members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
NO FLOOD
Fears in OPEC (News - Websites)are that heavy early investment in Iraq might flood world oil markets, hitting prices and undermining the Saudi-led OPEC strategy of production restrictions aimed at supporting $25-a-barrel crude.
In addition, Riyadh is the prime candidate for ceding a share in OPEC production to Baghdad, having expanded supply most since the United Nations imposed sanctions on Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990, stalling Iraqi output.
The RIIA said the six million barrels a day of which Baghdad is believed capable would have to wait"for the emergence of a truly independent Iraq" willing to engage major companies on stable terms.
It said any transitional government, seen within two years after an initial U.S. occupation, would find it very difficult to offer the stable fiscal or legal framework or political investment climate to attract long-term private investment.
"As a result oil authorities would offer initial contracts to oil service companies to rehabilitate existing fields," the report said. Beyond that could come short-term Iranian-style buyback contracts that offer a fixed fee to develop already discovered fields to maintain production at 3.5 million bpd.
The RIIA said both a transitional government and its successor would be expected to keep Iraq in OPEC.
"Politically, the transitional government could not afford to renounce its past nationalist policy and 'leave OPEC' as a result of U.S. influence," it said.
The thinktank suggested a temporary solution that keeps Iraq in OPEC without any formal cap on Baghdad's production under the cartel's system of supply quotas.
The report said that a new government would be expected to honour existing oilfield contracts. But it said the current government had renounced Baghdad's only existing major contract, held by Russia's LUKOIL (LKOH.RTS), on the grounds of non-performance.
Chinese state companies hold two small contracts but other companies that were in negotiation with Baghdad do not have contract status.
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