-->Quelle: US-Forum:
Here's a quick follow-up to the note I sent you the other day comparing our current gold bull market to the Big One in the seventies. Perhaps we could think of it as a cursory"relative strength" study. Teaser line: There's a small bombshell to be revealed at the end.
As we all know, it's quite rare in this present market for gold to put in a new high more than two or three days in a row. As it turns out, though, it was equally rare back in the seventies. Going back to August 1976 when that bull really began to take shape, we find that for the entire remainder of the year gold made new highs on three consecutive trading days only once (all prices London PM fix). That was at the beginning of September.
In 1977, gold managed triple consecutive highs only three times during the year—in March, October and November.
In 1978, triple highs occurred four times—in January, February, March and October.
In 1979 (the year before the Great Explosion in January of 1980) gold did its hat trick five times—in February, May, July, and twice in December. But wait—there's more. Gold also managed twice to make new highs on four consecutive days (completely apart from the triples I just mentioned) in September and October. Things were definitely heating up for the blowoff that was coming in January '80.
So, how do we compare in the modern day? I'm glad you asked. Our current gold bull began in April 2001. That year, gold made new highs on three consecutive days only one time. That was in May. Pretty slow start. In fact, there were only 15 new highs made the entire year.
Last year, 2002, ironically gold again managed only 15 new highs for the year. There were no triple high occurrences at all. But hold on, now. What's this I see in the month of May? By golly, it looks as if gold made new highs four days in a row! And if that isn't enough to get your blood flowing, in December last year gold actually put in new highs five days in a row, something that never occurred at all in the seventies!
Now that I've got you on the edge of your seat, let's take a look at what's happened this year (so far). Since January 1, 2003 gold has put in three consecutive highs only once. That happened January 22, 23 & 24. From January until August, things were pretty quiet. Then in September, we finally busted through the $390 mark and things have been plowing ahead ever since. There weren't any further triple-high episodes since the one in January, but behold!, look what happened at the end of last month: On November 28, the London PM fix was set at $398.38. That new high was part of not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, not eight but NINE consecutive new highs! That's right, from November 28 to December 10, each fixing of the London PM gold price was higher than the one before. Jimmy Carter, eat your heart out!
I only mention all this to show that something is happening in the gold market unlike anything we've ever witnessed. I still have the feeling that, even though it may take a while to play out, we just might be priming ourselves for the mother of all golden bulls. There have already been 24 new highs this year, which is a full 60% above last year's performance (and the year ain't over yet!).
Something is brewing in Goldville!
Ich habe nachgeprĂĽft und: Es stimmt!
Emerald.
|