Heute auf cnnfn gefunden:
<h2>"Death spiral" for Japan?</h2>
The Japanese unemployment rate still is headed higher, however, and analysts warned that problems emanating from the bankruptcy of retailer Sogo Co. are beginning to reverberate through the Japanese economy.
Sentiment was further depressed by news Monday that Kimitaka Kuze, chairman of the Financial Reconstruction Commission, has had to step down after reports he received several million dollars in consulting fees from Mitsubishi Trust Bank.
Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., said that if the Nikkei stock index continues to decline, there could be a"death spiral," with broad-based trouble in the Japanese banking sector. Some banks already may have unrealized paper losses on their equity holdings, Weinberg said.
A death spiral is a self-amplifying cycle of stock declines, credit contraction and business failures, he explained.
Even at current levels, it does not pay for Japanese insurance companies to liquidate domestic stocks to raise cash, Weinberg said. They need the funds because more Japanese are converting whole life insurance policies into cash or annuities sooner than expected.
"So the choices are to sell foreign assets or domestic bonds," Weinberg said."Thus far, we believe they have been selling foreign assets and repatriating the funds into short-term bonds for safekeeping."
These inflows have supported the yen to some extent, he said, because they have exceeded foreigners' disinvestment in Japan's equities, at least so far.
"This is a delicate balance, as foreigners will flee faster from Japan's equities if the Nikkei goes down the tubes," Weinberg said."We expect a volatile yen, with a downward bias, over the next two months."
-- Gordon Platt is a freelance columnist writing about currency markets for CNNfn.com
Und hier noch ein Artikel aus der heutigen FT:
<h2>Positive news fails to lift Japanese markets</h2>
By Bayan Rahman in Tokyo
Published: July 31 2000 11:59GMT | Last Updated: July 31 2000 16:56GMT
The scandal-hit government of Yoshiro Mori, the Japanese prime minister, received relatively positive economic news with the release of wages figures and construction orders on Monday, but the data were not enough to bolster the stock market or avert attention from the government's political woes.
Construction orders placed with Japan's top 50 contractors rose 13 per cent in June compared with a year earlier, the construction ministry said. But orders placed by the private sector rose only 4.1 per cent, down from an 11.8 per cent increase in May.
Overtime pay rose 5.2 per cent in June on a year-on-year basis, the 14th consecutive increase, according to the labour ministry. Special payments including summer bonuses rose 1.7 per cent, the first June rise in four years. Last year special payments dropped 7.2 per cent in June.
An increase in wages and bonuses could help to trigger a rise in consumer spending, critical to a sustained recovery since it accounts for about two-thirds of it. Private consumption has so far proved tenaciously resistent to attempts to boost spending.
The data did little to bolster a weak stock market thrown into turmoil on Monday by the resignation of the country's top banking regulator.
Mr Mori apologised in parliament for his choice of Kimitaka Kuze as head of the Financial Reconstruction Commission. Mr Kuze resigned on Sunday, only weeks after being appointed by Mr Mori, because of revelations he had failed to declare financial aid from a bank and a property developer.
The stock market fell sharply in early trade but later picked up on a rebound in high technology issues. But the number of declining shares far outnumbered rising issues and the stock market indices closed down or almost flat. The Nikkei 225 fell 111.08 points to 15,727.49.
Analysts said Monday's data were unlikely to encourage the Bank of Japan to end its policy of driving short-term interest rates to zero. The Bank has highlighted conditions surrounding jobs and incomes as crucial to its decision whether to raise rates, but economists said the likelihood of an increase was fading with the stock market's recent decline and signs the global economy would slow down.
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