Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Meine Taktik für Morgen ff. - dottore, 21.07.2002, 22:02
- Dottore! - Lentas, 21.07.2002, 22:18
- Re: Dottore! - Schliesse mich an - DANKE (owT) - shroom, 22.07.2002, 00:41
- Re: Meine Taktik für Morgen ff. - ---- ELLI ----, 21.07.2002, 22:35
- Re: Da wünsche ich mal gute Nacht! - André, 21.07.2002, 22:55
- Re: crash`87 (englisch) + Gold minus 20 Dollar - netrader, 21.07.2002, 22:59
- Zitat aus der NZZ - Eine tiefgreifende Krise ist nicht zu erkennen... - Aristoteles, 21.07.2002, 23:52
- vielleicht - aber if panic, panic first!!! (owT) - Tofir, 22.07.2002, 00:15
- Eine Frage zu Punkt 1 - shroom, 22.07.2002, 01:48
- ich wär für zigaretten als währung. oder schöne fette havannas (owT) - t-aktie, 22.07.2002, 14:45
- @ dottore: Re: Meine Taktik für Morgen ff. - Eine Frage zu Punkt 1 - shroom, 22.07.2002, 01:49
- Dottore! - Lentas, 21.07.2002, 22:18
Re: crash`87 (englisch) + Gold minus 20 Dollar
Anbei noch ein Fundstück für die, die noch Zeit haben.
Als kleine Erinnerung für alle, die den 87er Crash kommen sahen, jede Minute miterlebten und sich unglaublich wunderten, dass die Goldminen so schlecht liefen.
History of 1987 crash, part
by: schtrader (47/M/New York) 07/21/02 07:18 am
Msg: 11935 of 11945
From a site called Lowrisk.com:
On October 6th, the Dow lost 91.55 points, or 3.5%. This was a new record point drop for a one day session. But the press was quick to point out that this didn't even make the top 100 down days in percentage terms. Still, some real concern was starting to sink in over the market drop. In fact, on October 6th while the Dow was plummeting, the new Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission was giving his first speech. His focus was on controlling market volatility in the event of a"market meltdown".
Over the next seven trading sessions the market continued to drop precipitously. The the DJIA fell to 2355. This was a drop of 10.8% from the 9/22 peak and 13.5% from the top on 8/25.
Things were about to get much worse. On Friday, October 16th the Dow opened about 10 points higher. It started to drop almost immediately. At its worst level, just before the close, the Dow was down 130 points. The Dow closed down 108.35 points (-4.6%) on record volume. The 338 million shares traded were 10% greater than the previous record of 302 million. The headlines reflect bewilderment:
"What's Next? Plunge in Stocks Has Forecasters Guessing; Some Stay Bullish, but the Bears Are 'Running Wild" -
"...It was the third major decline in as many days. But several technical analysts said the at the big volume accompanying Friday's session might mean better things ahead" - Wall Street Journal, 10/19/87
There was a lot of analysis of the market drop in the Wall Street Journal after the big drop and huge volume on Friday, October 19th. The Journal quoted many traders and analysts. Most quoted were bullish - they felt that they had seen a"selling climax". Some analysts were more cautious or bearish.
Since the Wall Street Journal is not published on Saturday and Sunday, so the above was published on Monday, October 19th. And within minutes after the market opened on October 19th, the answer to"What's Next?" was pretty clear.
The answer was panic.
On October 19th, 1987 the stock market crashed. The DJIA closed down 22.6% for the day. A similar drop in today's market would equal approximately 1800 points. Volume was an unbelievable 604.3 million shares, almost double the previous record of 338.5 million shares set on the previous Friday. The DJIA was down 36.7% from its closing high less than two months earlier.
The selling started right from the open. 11 of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials did not open for the first hour due to order imbalances - there were so many sell orders they could not be matched to buy orders. With many stocks on the NYSE not trading due to order imbalances, traders turned to the futures markets to cover their positions:
Chicago- The panic began here.
An eerie quiet settled over the teeming stock-index futures pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange early yesterday as traders watched the beginning of the worst washout in stock-market history
With trading delayed in many major New York Stock Exchange issues because of order imbalances, Chicago's controversial"shadow markets" -the highly leveraged, liquid futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index- were, for just a few minutes, the leading indicator for the Western world's equity markets.
And the stock-index markets were leading the way down - fast. In a nightmarish fulfillment of some trader's and academician's worst fears, the five-year-old index futures for the first time plunged into a panicky unlimited free fall, fostering a sense of crisis throughout the U.S. capital markets.
- Wall Street Journal, 10/20/87
The language of Wall Street is numbers, so perhaps these numbers can tell the story best:
October 19, 1987 Index Closing Price Net Change % Change
Dow Jones Industrials 1738.74 -508.00 -22.6%
Dow Jones Transports 776.87 -164.78 -17.5%
Dow Jones Utilities 160.98 -29.16 -15.3%
NYSE Composite 128.62 -30.51 -19.2%
SP 500 Index 224.84 -57.86 -20.5%
NASDAQ Composite 360.21 -46.12 -11.4%
Value Line 211.74 -37.73 -15.1%
Wilshire 5000 2310.29 -503.18 -17.9%
A look at the market internals for the day shows similar devastation in the market:
New York Stock Exchange Advancing issues 52
Declining issues 1,973
Unchanged issues 56
New highs 10
New lows 1,068
Advancing volume (000's) 1,129
Declining volume (000's) 602,781
NASDAQ Advancing issues 137
Declining issues 3,573
Unchanged issues 1,152
New highs 10
New lows 1,315
Advancing volume (000's) 4,763
Declining volume (000's) 201,077
No one knows what will happen this week, but I posted the messages below because if the days leading up to the 10/19/87 crash are any indicator, this could be the week of panic, with the Dow dropping 1800 points or more. Kitco.com's historical charts show that the price of gold fell $20 immediately after the crash, but then rose for a couple of months to new highs. Then in 1988 gold began to slide for the long-term.
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