Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - Re: Zu FNM & FMC

Re: Zu FNM & FMC

verfasst von CRASH_GURU, 04.01.2004, 07:52

-->>Aber ich halte die nachstehende Behauptung (die uns wohl zum Kern des Themas bringt) von Doug Nolan schlicht für falsch:
>Tatsache ist (nach meinem Verständnis), dass FNM & FMC zwar neue Anleihen begeben ("herauszugeben"), diese dienen aber dem Kauf bereits entstandener Hypothekenforderungen der Retail-Banken.
>Das Geldmengenthema wird erst berührt, wenn diese FNM & FMC-Anleihen bei der Zentralbank zur Refinanzierung (des Bankenapparates) als Sicherheit dienen.
>Ich bin überfragt, ob das möglich ist...
>Gruß & Dank

Guten Morgen!

Ich meine das Spiel braucht keine ZB.
Kleines Beispiel: (MMF unterliegen keinen Bankenregeln)

John Q möchte sein Haus renovieren, bekommt von S+L 100k Hypo. Da er das Geld nicht sofort ausgeben kann, legt er es in einem MMF an. Die S+L verkauft Hypo inzwischen an FreddieM.
Der MMF kauft nun mit den 100k bei FreddieM MB Securities. Inzwischen ist Jane S arbeitlos geworden und nimmt eine 2. Hypo auf. Sie wendet sich an die S+L und bekommt die 100k. Die S+L verkauft Hypo an FreddieMac. Da Jane das Geld nicht sofort ausgeben kann legt sie es in unserem MMF an. Der kauft damit bei FreddieM MBS... usw usw. Hat sich durch dieses Spiel die Geld/ Kreditmenge erhöht?

Ich meine JA!

In diesem Fall hat sie sich statistisch erhöht, wenn FreddieM die MBS an ausländische Zentralbanken verkauft taucht das scheinbar in keiner Geldmengen Statistik auf.

Hierzu Auszug aus Doug Nolan`s CBB im Oktober 2003:

Correction: Fannie AND Freddie Liquefy the World:

Freddie Mac’s September Monthly Summary was released today. Oh my… Freddie’s Retained Portfolio expanded by a record $26.0 billion, or an annualized growth rate of 50.6%. This follows August’s 41.9% growth rate. Freddie’s total Book of Business (Retained Portfolio and non-retained mortgage-backeds guaranteed) surged $60 billion over two months (28% annualized) to $1.35 Trillion. For the third quarter, Freddie’s Retained Portfolio jumped $55.6 billion, or 38% annualized. When combined with Fannie Mae’s extraordinary expansion, the numbers become truly incredible. For September, Fannie and Freddie’s Total Retained Portfolios increased an unprecedented $79.9 billion, or 64.8% annualized, to $1.56 Trillion. For the quarter, the combined Retained Portfolios ballooned $160.2 billion, or 46% annualized. To put this number into perspective, Total Home Mortgage borrowings increased $258 billion during the entire year of 1997. Year-over-year, combined Books of Business were up $476 billion, or 16%, with Retained Mortgage Portfolios ballooning $277 billion, or 22%. Out of control…

The captivating world of “money supply” has recently been garnering more than its usual amount of attention and commentary. I’ll throw in my two cents worth. First of all, we must constantly remind ourselves that the contemporary financial system is a much different animal than conventional thinking gives it credit for. Traditionally, the financial system was essentially the banking system. This is simply no longer the case, as the banks share center stage with the Wall Street financial conglomerates, the GSEs, and securities markets generally. Importantly, contemporary “money” is anything but limited to government issued currency and bank created deposits. Moreover, the banking system no longer dominates the issuance of monetary liabilities (depositor assets) or commands the payment system. We have today the powerful money market fund complex, as well as instruments such as repurchase agreements and Eurodollars. Traditional money - currency and bank deposits - no longer exclusively represents “liquidity,” and a strong argument can be made that non-bank Credit creation (liability expansion by the GSEs, Wall Street, and foreign monetary authorities) is the driving force behind contemporary financial market-based “liquidity.”

Today, it is the nature of financial sector liability expansion that we must carefully monitor to garner clues for important systemic liquidity developments. There has been a recent notable stagnation of money supply after several months of heady growth. During the past 12 weeks, M3 has declined $37 billion, or 1.9% annualized. This is a dramatic reversal from the preceding 12-week period (weeks of April 28 to July 21) when M3 surged $220 billion, or 11% annualized. Digging into monetary component detail, we see that over the past 12 weeks Money Fund Deposits have declined almost $78 billion (Retail Money Fund deposits down $35.5 billion and Institutional Money Fund deposits down $37.3 billion), or 15.4% annualized. Meantime, Savings Deposits expanded $70.6 billion, or almost 10% annualized, with y-o-y year expansion of $466 billion (17%). Recent money supply stagnation is essentially explained by the decline in Money Market Fund deposits.

Clearly, there has been a tremendous flight to risk assets this year (out of the money market funds), but that doesn’t help much in explaining the dramatic monetary boom turned recent stagnation. There is also the issue of the collapse of the Refi boom that has played a role in the composition and holders of financial sector liabilities over the past several months. But talk of a collapse in net mortgage lending is poor analysis. Yet I do believe we can look directly to the recently mushrooming Fannie and Freddie balance sheets. They provide the best explanation for the abrupt stagnation of “money,” especially Money Fund deposits.

The GSEs have aggressively ballooned their holdings (mainly buying mortgages and mortgage-backs), providing liquidity to the banks, hedge funds, and Wall Street community. And, importantly, to finance this extraordinary balance sheet expansion, the GSEs have been issuing non-monetary IOUs/liabilities - long-term agency bonds (that are not a component of the “money supply”). Thus, we must appreciate that agency debt (as opposed to bank or money fund liabilities) has been over the past few months a predominant financial sector liability created in the unrelenting financial sector expansion (liquidity creation). The system has experienced tremendous liquidity creation resulting in little expansion of money supply components. This is a very atypical development in quite unusual times.

So I would tend to have my own view of the current liquidity situation: I believe the recent money supply stagnation is NOT indicative of generally faltering systemic liquidity. Indeed, it could be just the opposite. There is today a strange paradox of GSE induced over-liquefication financed by the issuance of agency bonds. Large quantities of these agency securities have been purchased by foreign central banks and international players recycling the raging surplus of global dollar balances. The Overriding issue remains Unrelenting Dollar Liquidity Excesses - an out of control Bubble of dollar financial claim creation. (At the same time, the grossly speculative and inflated U.S. stock market is a liquidity-Bubble accident in the making.)

Thread gesperrt

gesamter Thread:

@ Elli, Cosa, dottore,Reinhard u alle nochmals zum Problem: Inflation/Deflation - AndrÃ©, 03.01.2004, 20:03
- Sehr schöne Übersicht, danke! Machen wir weiter damit! (owT) - -- Elli --, 03.01.2004, 20:07
- Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac und Geldmenge - Popeye, 03.01.2004, 21:17
  - Re: FNM & FMC oder Vom Bauen am Fluss - netrader, 03.01.2004, 21:46
    - Re: Zu FNM & FMC - marsch, 03.01.2004, 22:04
      - Re: Zu FNM & FMC - Popeye, 03.01.2004, 22:51
        Re: Zu FNM & FMC - Popeye hat´s getroffen - AndrÃ©, 03.01.2004, 23:18
        Re: Zu FNM & FMC - CRASH_GURU, 04.01.2004, 07:52
        Re: Zu FNM & FMC - Popeye, 04.01.2004, 08:45
        Re: Zu FNM & FMC - netrader, 04.01.2004, 09:40
        Re: Zu FNM & FMC - völlig d'accord:-) (owT) - Popeye, 04.01.2004, 09:54
        @ Popeye - FNM und FMC - R.Deutsch, 04.01.2004, 09:49
        Re: @ Popeye - FNM und FMC - Popeye, 04.01.2004, 10:17
        Re: @ Popeye - FNM und FMC - Cosa, 04.01.2004, 11:40
        Re: @ Popeye - FNM und FMC - Popeye, 04.01.2004, 15:52
        Re: toll; vielen Dank für die informative Datei! - Cosa, 04.01.2004, 16:31
    - Re: FNM & FMC oder Vom Bauen am Fluss - Popeye, 03.01.2004, 22:06
      - Re: Geldmenge & Inflation - Ghandi, 03.01.2004, 22:23
      - Re: FNM & FMC oder Vom Bauen am Fluss - netrader, 03.01.2004, 23:16
        Geldmenge und ‚Kreditmenge’ - Popeye, 03.01.2004, 23:55
        Re: Geldmenge und ‚Kreditmenge’ - CRASH_GURU, 04.01.2004, 06:59
  - Re: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac und Geldmenge - Diogenes, 04.01.2004, 08:02
    - Re: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac und Geldmenge - Popeye, 04.01.2004, 08:14
      - Re: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac und Geldmenge - Diogenes, 04.01.2004, 11:54
        Re: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac und Geldmenge - Popeye, 04.01.2004, 15:17
        Re: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac und Geldmenge - Diogenes, 04.01.2004, 20:42
        Re: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac und Geldmenge - Popeye, 04.01.2004, 21:39
        Re: WESSEN Liquidität? - Ghandi, 04.01.2004, 22:00
        Re: WESSEN Liquidität? - Popeye, 04.01.2004, 22:15
        Re: okay, anderes Beispiel - Ghandi, 04.01.2004, 23:04
        Re: okay, anderes Beispiel - Popeye, 04.01.2004, 23:26
        Re: okay, anderes Beispiel - Ghandi, 04.01.2004, 23:46
        Re: okay, anderes Beispiel / auch nicht... - - Elli -, 04.01.2004, 23:59
        Re: okay, anderes Beispiel - Popeye, 05.01.2004, 08:29
        Re: okay, anderes Beispiel / noch was... - - Elli -, 04.01.2004, 23:56
        Re: okay, anderes Beispiel / Einspruch - - Elli -, 04.01.2004, 23:35
        Re: okay, anderes Beispiel / Einspruch - Stattgegeben... - bernor, 05.01.2004, 00:07
        Re: WESSEN Liquidität? / GENAUS DAS ist endlich der Punkt... - (v. a. @dottore) - -- Elli --, 04.01.2004, 23:13
        Re: Perfekt - Danke! Plus Zusatzanmerkung: - dottore, 05.01.2004, 11:51
        Re: Perfekt - Danke! Plus Zusatzanmerkung: / Ja... - - Elli -, 05.01.2004, 12:02
        Somit wär ein sinken der Geldmenge (Kreditsumme) letztlich normal, wenn einfach - LenzHannover, 05.01.2004, 23:25
        Re: Kredit und Kollabs oder: Geld fehlt immer - Student, 17.01.2004, 21:42
        Re: Kredit und Kollabs oder: Geld fehlt immer - - Elli -, 17.01.2004, 21:53
        Re: Kredit und Kollabs oder: Geld fehlt immer - Euklid, 17.01.2004, 22:14
        Re: Kredit und Kollabs / Die (schließbare) Zinslücke - Student, 17.01.2004, 22:51
        Re: Kredit und Kollabs / Die (schließbare) Zinslücke - - Elli -, 17.01.2004, 23:32
        Re: Kredit und Kollabs / Die (schließbare) Zinslücke - Student, 17.01.2004, 23:55
        Re: Der Ruf der Klippen - Tassie Devil, 18.01.2004, 04:15
        Re: Schließt sich nicht - dottore, 18.01.2004, 15:13
        Re: Schließt sich nicht / @Dottore + Interessierte - Student, 18.01.2004, 19:59
        Re: @dottore: Heeelp please - Tassie Devil, 19.01.2004, 08:50
        Re: @dottore: Heeelp please / Zentralbank - Student, 19.01.2004, 09:28
        Re: @dottore: Heeelp please / Zentralbank - Euklid, 19.01.2004, 09:49
        Re: @dottore: Heeelp please / Zentralbank - dottore, 19.01.2004, 13:47
        Re: @dottore: Heeelp please / Zentralbank - Euklid, 19.01.2004, 14:22
        Re: @dottore: Du hilfst mir immer weiter,... - Student, 19.01.2004, 14:43
        Re: @dottore: Coocoo ;-) (mkT) - Tassie Devil, 19.01.2004, 15:29
        Re: @Tassie Devil / Zentralbank - Student, 31.01.2004, 17:16
        Re: @Student/ Zentralbank - Tassie Devil, 31.01.2004, 19:29
        Re: @Student/ Zentralbank - Student, 31.01.2004, 22:46
        Re: @Student/ Zentralbank - Euklid, 01.02.2004, 10:25
        Re: @Student/ Zentralbank - Tassie Devil, 01.02.2004, 11:04
        Re: @Tassie Devil / Zentralbank - Student, 01.02.2004, 12:05
        Re: @Student / Zentralbank - Tassie Devil, 01.02.2004, 15:36
        Re: @Student: na denn good smoko ;-) (owT) - Tassie Devil, 19.01.2004, 14:57
        Re: Schließt sich nicht / Sie schließt sich doch - Student, 01.02.2004, 10:05
        Re: Kurzschluss oder nicht, das ist die Frage ;-) - Tassie Devil, 02.02.2004, 06:48
        Re: Kurzschluss oder nicht... / Hauptsache die Lücke ist endlich zu ;-) - Student, 02.02.2004, 10:21
        Re: @Student - Volltreffer - Tassie Devil, 03.02.2004, 11:13
        Re: @Tassie Devil / Großer Dank und eine kleine Spekulation - Student, 03.02.2004, 12:11
        Re: @Student/ Ozonloch - Tassie Devil, 03.02.2004, 13:39
        Re: Kredit und Kollabs oder: Geld fehlt immer - chiron, 17.01.2004, 23:21
        Re: Kredit und Kollabs oder: Geld fehlt immer - Diogenes, 18.01.2004, 08:19
- Re: Hyperinflation - R.Deutsch, 04.01.2004, 07:48
  - Re: Hyperinflation - CRASH_GURU, 04.01.2004, 08:06
  - Re: Hyperinflation...sorry zweiter Versuch - CRASH_GURU, 04.01.2004, 08:07
  - Re:.... inflation? - Ghandi, 04.01.2004, 12:05
    - Re: Sehr richtig - Spirale einwärts, abwärts - dottore, 04.01.2004, 17:54
- Re: Siegfried-Stimmung - dottore, 04.01.2004, 12:24
  - Re: Siegfried-Stimmung - Diogenes, 04.01.2004, 13:43
    - Re: Siegfried-Stimmung - dottore, 04.01.2004, 15:25
  - Zwei Fundstücke dazu. - Burning_Heart, 04.01.2004, 16:47
- Inflation/Deflation - schwierige Prognose - politico, 04.01.2004, 12:34
- Re: FNM; FRE - Cosa, 04.01.2004, 12:38
  - @Cosa - chiron, 04.01.2004, 20:02
- pro Inflation über 2004: Zitat Jim Bradley c/o prudentbear.com - netrader, 04.01.2004, 20:09
- Und noch eine Expertenfundsache (Analyst aus Johannesburg) - netrader, 05.01.2004, 07:05

Re: Zu FNM &amp; FMC

Re: Zu FNM & FMC